2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Sep-19

The crypto index NWST1100 slipped by 0.97% last week. Large caps represented by the index NWSL100 have outperformed other segments, rising by 5.20% in the previous thirty days.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but it effectively displays essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

After conducting a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market, several essential market dynamics and changes in market sentiment are revealed:

The  NWST1100 index slipped 1.03% last week, ending at 8,617. Volatility shaped the period: morning rallies repeatedly gave way to afternoon sell-offs, while the FOMC’s mid-week rate cut triggered sharp swings before fading into Friday weakness. Despite the turbulence, the index held mainly within the upper halves of the Bollinger and Keltner envelopes, showing that upward impulses remain intact but capped below resistance near R1 (8,800). Price structure reflects compression—momentum attempts to meet persistent supply.

Market Sentiment (PPO & RSI): Market sentiment shows tentative improvement. The PPO histogram stayed positive but started falling late in the week, moving closer to the zero line, hinting at fading momentum. The PPO lines have remained in positive territory, confirming the broader bullish regime. The RSI changed direction downward, closed at 56.44, a neutral reading that reflects digestion rather than breakdown.

Crypto Market Breadth indicators: The Advance-Decline Volume Line (ADVL), adapted by 2100News for the crypto market as ADVPL, tracks the net money volume of advancing versus declining digital assets. It peaked and drifted lower, reflecting modest outflows. The McClellan Summation Index, a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator that measures market breadth, has flattened, suggesting breadth advance has slowed.

According to the chart on the right, all A50R indicators across all major segments (NWST1100, NWSET100, NWSL100, NWSCo100) have deteriorated. Still, only 38% of NWST1100 constituents are above their 50-day EMA. Large Caps (NWSL100) and Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100) remain the strongest cohorts, with 51–42% above their 50-day averages; however, this is still far from broad-based strength.

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above the 50-day EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

📉 Summary

In Summary, the crypto market last week was defined by volatility and compression. Despite brief surges, resistance at R1 contained advances, leaving the index oscillating in the upper channel range. Momentum has softened, breadth has cooled from its peak, and the market is now in a digestion phase where buyers and sellers are locked in balance.

Outlook for this week

This report examines the cryptocurrency market’s short-term outlook, identifying patterns and signals that may offer insights into potential market direction. While predicting market behavior is inherently uncertain, discernible trends in momentum and market breadth indicators suggest possible developments.

1. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stood at 56 last week and may continue to fall, signaling momentum fatigue that could extend into further weakness.
2. The PPO histogram, which measures the rate of change (i.e., the first derivative) of PPO lines, positive for nearly two weeks, has rolled over and is now approaching the zero line. Statistically, such inflections often foreshadow a shift; a decisive cross into negative territory would imply fading momentum and bring PPO lines back toward the zero axis, a level where markets usually resolve with either renewed strength or extended correction.
3. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) also suggest potential deterioration. The ADVPL has rolled over from a peak, while the McClellan Summation Index is flattening, both of which hint that participation may start to deteriorate. A parabolic breadth surge rarely sustains; if participation continues to slip, selling pressure is likely to guide the market toward a retest of support levels

📌 Target and Scenario Considerations:

📍 Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: 7,900 (lower boundary of the Bollinger and Keltner channels), 7,600 (Pivot S1, 143-day EMA)

• Resistance: 8,300 (Pivot P)

Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it is evident that the crypto market has trended sideways, with the overall index slipping by 1.03% over the last week. The chart above highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Among these, large caps (NWSL100) stood out, slightly outperforming other segments with a 5.20% gain over the past thirty days.

While the broader market has trended sideways, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit different performance dynamics.

Performance Trends by Market Segment:

✔ NWSCo100 (Coins) and NWSL100 (Large Caps) led the market,

✔ NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens) has been weakening after prior leadership.

✔ Bitcoin showed signs of improvement,

✔ NWS30, Ether, and NWSBE lagged.

Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, providing insights into both historical and recent performances, as well as potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 46 Months Ago: Digital assets showcased a notable outperformance against shares in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • Over the past twelve months, digital assets have outperformed equities by 56.6%.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • Over the past 143 working days, the average quotient price, represented by a blue dashed curve, stands at 10.96, while the current spot ratio is 11.68. This is higher than the long-term mean of 8.71, which has increased since October.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices tend to revert to their historical average returns over time. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are still trading at a relative premium to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it offers a consistent benchmark to compare historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has risen by 73.86%  over the past twelve months. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a gain of 23.0% on the current index price, reflecting unprofitable purchases due to high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, representing global capital market shares, has risen 16.67% over the past twelve months. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 12.6%.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.