2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Oct-20

The NWST1100 index has risen by 6.54% from the previous week. Trust Wallet (TWT),  a Large-cap Non-Ethereum-based Token, is biweekly making the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. 

Following our previous analysis, which anticipated a rise toward the target resistance set by the 143-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), we’ve delved deep into the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market. Our thorough examination of various indicators has brought to light several crucial insights:

1. The trajectory of the NWST1100 index reveals its approach toward the resistance set by the 143-day EMA, depicted by the red curve on the chart.
2. Market sentiment: The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) lines have slightly increased. This suggests the market could be pausing after its recent significant moves. A directional alteration in the PPO histogram gives a nod to the potential enhancement in the momentum. The upward trajectory of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a growing optimism in market sentiment.
3. We are shifting our focus to the Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the NWST1100 chart. The Advance-Decline Line (ADVL) showcases an ascent. This indicator hints at a positive market breadth, capturing the disparity between advancing and declining cryptocurrencies. The dominance of advancing cryptocurrencies could bolster the overall market sentiment. Adding to the optimism, the McClellan Summation Index’s climb indicates potential latent positive movements in the market.

Considering these insights, while the market displays the third attempt to overcome the resistance, specific market breadth indicators echo positivity. Notably, the ascent of the McClellan Summation Index suggests underlying positive catalysts at work. The movement of multiple cryptocurrencies above their 50-day EMA further supports the notion of a potential bullish sentiment permeating the market.

The chart on the right shows that all four A50R lines have ascended from the oversold territory. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average. A surge in the number of cryptocurrencies trading above their 50-day EMA could be the harbinger of an expansive upward trend or a mounting bullish sentiment across the market.

*This breadth indicator is essential in measuring the internal strength or weakness of the underlying index. Looking at the chart on the right side, we can see the A50R lines for four different categories of digital assets:

1. The top box shows the A50R lines for 100 Large-cap members of NWSL100.
2. The middle box displays the A50R lines for 1100 members of NWST1100, which is the Total Index measuring the performance of significant crypto assets based on market capitalization.
3. The third box shows the A50R lines for 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100.
4. The bottom box represents the A50R lines for 100 Coins members of NWSCo100.

Outlook for this week

This report aims to provide insights into the cryptocurrency market’s near-term outlook. While complete predictability remains challenging, the market waves show some degree of predictability with discernible patterns in market behavior. By examining momentum indicators, several signals emerge that offer insights into the potential direction of the market in the short term.

1. The market’s recurrent efforts to surpass the resistance level denote persistent bullish tendencies. Multiple attempts, especially the third, often suggest building pressure, which can signify a potential breakthrough when combined with other bullish signals.
2. The RSI (Relative Strength Index), standing at 57, leans towards a bullish bias. While it’s not in the overbought territory, it indicates prevailing buying pressure, which can provide the needed impetus for the market to rally.
3. The rising histogram of the Percentage Price Oscillator hints at reinforced momentum. Historically, an upward trajectory in the PPO histogram often precedes price rallies, and in this context, it provides further credence to the idea of a potential bullish run.
4. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) point towards a broader market movement. A rising McClellan Summation Index, derived from the McClellan Oscillator, underlines the possibility of widespread market participation in the rally, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.

Considering this analysis, given the confluence of the above signals, the prognosis for the NWST1100 to breach the 143-day EMA resistance in the coming week appears plausible. The prediction of consolidation around the 2800 points mark, followed by a sharp rally, aligns with the observed momentum indicators.

Performance of various groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens) 

Investors and traders often use historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, the overall index NWST1100 has risen by 6.54% over the last week, indicating a modest positive performance in the broader cryptocurrency market. The chart below highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). A retrospective view over the last thirty days indicates that Bitcoin has shown the most promising performance, with a gain of 15.08%.

 

 

 

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, offering insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 23 Months Ago: The NWST1100 index, representative of digital assets, held a distinct advantage over the W1Dow index. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • 12 Months Ago: Fast-forwarding to a year back, digital assets had a clear edge, outperforming shares by 2.9%. This performance data accentuates the heightened returns digital assets offered over shares in the specified duration.
• Recent Shift in Performance:
  • An analysis of the present year reveals a stark enhancement in the performance of digital assets. They have surpassed shares on global capital markets by a significant 33.3% margin, indicating a change in tide and possibly hinting at growing confidence among investors in the digital asset sector.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • The average quotient price over the past 143 working days is plotted as a blue dashed curve. Currently, this average sits below its long-run mean, hovering around 7.56. Such a deviation underscores a potential opportunity to invest in digital assets, leveraging the mean reversion theory.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices, over time, tend to revert to their historical average returns. The current average quotient prices below the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are currently undervalued compared to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved with the stock price generated by buying one point of the respective index daily over the past twelve months.
  • The NWST1100 Crypto Index enjoyed a 16.95% appreciation relative to the same period last year. If one had opted for daily index purchases, they would have seen a 2.6% gain compared to its current price.
  • Contrasting with the crypto index, the DJW, representing global capital market shares, grew by 13.72% over the past year. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a slight decline of 0.7%.
  • To conclude, expectations are rife as we stand at the threshold of a confirmed bullish trend between digital assets and global capital market shares. Digital assets purchased over the preceding year seem poised to offer magnified returns compared to shares as we traverse this bullish phase.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow. 

Indices Revision 10-20-2023

Based on the latest Bi-weekly revision, no new constituent was added to or removed from the NWSL100 index. Several new mid-cap assets have been added to the NWSM200 index, including IOTA, Dynex, Orbs, etc. More information about the additions and deletions for other indices in the family is available in each index’s presentation.

 

Winning member

Congratulations to Trust Wallet Token (TWT) for achieving a significant milestone by being recognized as the winning member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index. Let’s delve into the details of its performance:

1. Performance in the Last Ten Weeks: Trust Wallet Token (TWT) has displayed a growth trajectory that resonated with the 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100) performance. However, a significant bullish surge in early to mid-October set TWT apart, reinforcing its independent market dynamics. The violet area chart highlights TWT’s remarkable achievement, outpacing the NWSL100 index by a whopping 38%. This difference in performance underscores TWT’s resilience and potential in the market.
2. TWT vs. NWSL100: A comparison of TWT’s performance with the NWSL100 index reveals interesting insights. The green area graph represents TWT’s performance, while the orange area graph illustrates the index’s performance. Despite an overall weak correlation, evidenced by a Pearson’s correlation coefficient of just 0.23, TWT’s direction has mirrored the index roughly 80% of the time.
3. Divergence in Price Changes: TWT’s deviations in price from the NWSL100 index accentuate its distinct stance in the market. Even though its general direction aligns with the index, the nuances in its price shifts narrate a different tale. This divergence suggests that TWT’s price dynamics are possibly shaped by distinct market conditions or factors, setting it a class apart from the typical NWSL100 index trends.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view. 

 

Trust Wallet Token (TWT) Website: https://trustwallet.com/

TWT Large-cap Non Ethereum-based Token is 61st in the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSTo100, NWSOT50

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade:  Poor, 16 (Average for Large-caps: 18.5)

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Over the last week, the average market cap was $433.6 million, and the average daily volume was $17.8 million.

*The chart below shows the TWT compared to NWSL100 at the top, the box in the middle of the chart shows the original price, and at the bottom, we see NWSL100 and the correlation between TWT and NWSL100.