2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Apr-17

The crypto index NWST1100 rose 6.09% last week, progressing beyond a simple recovery phase into a more constructive advance. Over the past 30 days, Ether emerged as the strongest relative performer, posting a 7.78% gain.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing the 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures the performance of 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets. The information-laden chart is initially complex to read, but it effectively displays essential price information, key decision-making levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

After conducting a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market, several essential market dynamics and changes in market sentiment are revealed:

The NWST1100 index gained 6.09% over the past week, confirming that the market has progressed beyond a simple recovery phase into a more constructive advance. More important than the magnitude of the move is its quality and structure: the market has established a sequence of higher lows, sustained buying on pullbacks, and firm acceptance above the Pivot (P) zone (~4,650–4,700). Unlike prior rebound attempts—which repeatedly failed—this move demonstrates continuity and structural integrity. The recent pullback from the ~5,100 area was shallow and controlled, with price holding comfortably above prior support. This behavior signals a shift in market dynamics, where buyers are now active on dips rather than reactive at extremes. However, the structure remains incomplete. The market continues to trade below the key resistance zone (~4,900–5,100) and has yet to deliver a confirmed breakout with follow-through, leaving the current phase classified as early impulse rather than full expansion.

Market Sentiment (PPO & RSI): Momentum indicators reinforce this constructive shift but also highlight emerging short-term constraints. PPO lines have risen, reinforcing that momentum is now a tailwind rather than a transition variable. At the same time, the PPO histogram remains in positive territory but has peaked in recent sessions, indicating a loss of acceleration rather than a reversal. The RSI has moved into the 56–60 range, signaling a transition from compression into early expansion. However, given that the broader market structure remains below the 143-day moving average, this zone should be treated as a potential momentum ceiling rather than open upside space, as RSI often struggles to sustain moves above 60 in such environments.

Crypto Market Breadth indicators: confirm a meaningful regime shift—from selective rebounds to broader participation—supporting the structural improvement in price action. The Advance-Decline Volume Line (ADVL), adapted by 2100News for the crypto market as ADVPL, tracks the net money volume of advancing versus declining digital assets. It has been in a sustained uptrend, reflecting a strong and persistent capital inflow phase. However, this sequence appears to have paused around April 16. The McClellan Summation Index, a long-term breadth measure derived from the McClellan Oscillator, has been in a clear uptrend, confirming that participation is expanding across the market.

A50R Participation: According to the chart on the right, all A50R indicators across the major segments (NWST1100, NWSET100, NWSL100, NWSCo100) have risen. A50R readings — the share of assets trading above their 50-day EMAs — have remained relatively low, ending in the 31% to 42% range, reflecting a typical early-cycle environment: Participation has expanded, but has still been far from saturation. The Coins (NWSCo100) cohort remains the weakest. Large caps and the total market stabilized somewhat better than the weaker segments, reinforcing the pattern that majors are leading the recovery phase.

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above the 50-day EMA for:

1. Top panel: NWSL100 (Large Caps)
2. Middle panel: NWST1100 (Total Market)
3. Third panel: NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens)
4. Bottom panel: NWSCo100 (Coins)

📉 Summary

Momentum has shifted decisively into the positive phase, while breadth confirms real capital inflows and expanding participation. The market has transitioned from repair to early impulse formation, with improving structure and leadership. However, a confirmed breakout above key resistance is still required to validate a full transition into expansion.

Outlook for this week

This report examines the cryptocurrency market’s short-term outlook, identifying patterns and signals that may offer insights into potential market direction. While predicting market behavior is inherently uncertain, discernible trends in momentum and market breadth indicators suggest possible developments.

1. From a structural standpoint, the market is now positioned in a developing impulse phase, with momentum and breadth aligned on the upside.
2. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stood at 60 last week; it may support continuation with a potential momentum ceiling rather than open upside space, as RSI often struggles to sustain moves above 60 when the broader market structure remains below the 143-day moving average.
3. The PPO histogram, which measures the rate of change (i.e., the first derivative) of the PPO lines, may begin to fall but remain within a positive half-cycle. Since the histogram represents the rate of change of PPO lines, PPO lines may continue rising, confirming structural momentum.
4. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) may expand, increasing the probability that the market follows through. The ADVPL may continue mild accumulation. At the same time, the McClellan Summation Index may begin to flatten.

📌 Target and Scenario Considerations:

• Support: 4,750 (25-day EMA)

• Resistance: 5,150  (0.382 Fibonacci threshold / failed breakout ceiling)

Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

Investors and traders rely on historical performance data to contextualize short-term moves and assess the relative strength of different market segments. The latest table shows a rise across all categories, with the NWST1100 index rose 6.09% over the past week. The chart above highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Over the past 30 days, Ether emerged as the strongest relative performer, posting a 7.78% gain.

While the broader market has increased, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit distinct performance dynamics.

Performance Trends by Market Segment:

✔ Bitcoin, Ether, NWS30, and NWSBE led the market,

✔ NWSCo100 (Coins), NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens) and NWSL100 (Large Caps) lagged.

Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as measured by the NWST1100 index, to that of shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans multiple timeframes, providing insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 53 Months Ago: Digital assets vastly outperformed global equities in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • Over the past twelve months, digital assets have underperformed equities by 33.4%.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • Over the past 143 working days, the average quotient price, represented by the blue-dashed curve, stands at 7.64, while the current spot ratio is 6.31, which is lower than the long-term mean of 9.33, which has increased since October 2024.
  • The mean-reversion theory posits that asset prices tend to revert to their historical average returns over time. The current NWST1100-to-DJW price ratio, which is below the long-run mean, may indicate that digital assets are undervalued relative to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate the mechanical accumulation of exposure. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it provides a consistent benchmark for comparing historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has dropped by 9.65% over the past twelve months. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a 23.9% loss from the current index price, due to unprofitable purchases at high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend, when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, a broad-based global equity index, has risen 35.57% over the past 12 months. However, a daily-purchase strategy would have yielded a 11.9% gain.
• Conclusion:
  

  The recent pullback highlights a fundamental truth in crypto investing: market swings define opportunity. Historically, digital assets have significantly outperformed global equities, but their returns often occur in concentrated bursts following periods of pessimism and capitulation. Prices have fallen below the 143-day EMA and below the 600-day EMA, positioning the market at a technically and psychologically critical juncture. Relative to global equities, digital assets continue to trade at a deep underperformance. Looking ahead, sentiment-driven capitulations often create conditions for stronger rebounds, especially when paired with structural oversold signals. While caution remains warranted in the short term, current price levels could present compelling opportunities for disciplined investors preparing for the next leg in crypto’s broader market cycle.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.