2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Oct-17

The crypto index NWST1100 fell 3.39% last week. Bitcoin has outperformed other segments, losing only 1.92% over the previous thirty days.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing the 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures the performance of 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but it effectively displays essential price information, key decision-making levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

After conducting a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market, several essential market dynamics and changes in market sentiment are revealed:

The NWST1100 index declined3.39%, extending the previous week’s 12% drop. The cryptocurrency market went through another exceptionally volatile reversal. Following an early-October rebound attempt, sentiment collapsed again amid renewed selling pressure. The week opened with a flash crash on 11 October, when the NWST1100 plunged intraday by over 11%, Ether by 12.75%, and Bitcoin by 7.66%. A rapid two-day V-shaped rebound followed — on 12 October, the index gained 6.21%, Ether surged 10.53%, and Bitcoin advanced 3.42%. The rally extended briefly on 13 October but quickly lost momentum as volatility spiked. From 14 to 17 October, sellers regained control: on 14 October, the index dropped 3.06% and broke through short-term supports, while subsequent sessions failed to produce a meaningful recovery. Friday’s session saw renewed panic selling, pushing major indices to fresh local lows despite a late-day bounce. By the week’s close, the NWST1100 settled near 7,720, aligning with the 143-day EMA, erasing all mid-month gains. Ether once again outperformed during rebounds but fell harder in declines, underscoring its higher volatility relative to Bitcoin.

Market Sentiment (PPO & RSI): The PPO lines continued falling below zero, and the histogram stayed negative, indicating persistent downward momentum. The RSI at 34.9 remained in the lower neutral zone — weak, but not yet oversold.

Crypto Market Breadth indicators: The Advance-Decline Volume Line (ADVL), adapted by 2100News for the crypto market as ADVPL, tracks the net money volume of advancing versus declining digital assets. It collapsed, but began rising on Friday. The McClellan Summation Index, a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator that measures market breadth, turned down again, signaling continued contraction in market participation.

According to the chart on the right, all A50R indicators across the major segments (NWST1100, NWSET100, NWSL100, NWSCo100) have further deteriorated. Only 7-9% of constituents across major segments remain above their 50-day EMAs — a capitulation-level reading. Despite the ongoing weakness, a stabilization in shorter-term breadth suggests the selling wave may be entering a late-stage exhaustion phase.

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above the 50-day EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

📉 Summary

In Summary, the crypto market spent last week consolidating around its 143-day exponential moving average, stabilizing after the prior week’s capitulation. Technically, the index completed a full round trip from the R1 resistance (~9,150) down to its structural support zone. During the 11 October sell-off, prices touched the EMA143 intraday, reaffirming this level as a key dynamic support that temporarily halted the decline. While momentum and sentiment remain weak, the stabilization around this long-term moving average provides a foundation for potential basing in the coming sessions.

Outlook for this week

This report examines the cryptocurrency market’s short-term outlook, identifying patterns and signals that may offer insights into potential market direction. While predicting market behavior is inherently uncertain, discernible trends in momentum and market breadth indicators suggest possible developments.

1. This week’s outlook points toward the formation of a rounded bottom, indicating a gradual transition from selling pressure to early accumulation.
2. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stood at 34 last week and may remain weak, drifting lower early in the week before a potential oversold rebound develops.
3. The PPO histogram, which measures the rate of change (i.e., the first derivative) of PPO lines, stays profoundly negative but shows early signs of flattening within the red zone and starting to rise toward the zero line. As the histogram climbs, it signals a progressive recovery in momentum, setting the stage for a more sustained upturn later in the month. This pattern suggests downside momentum is slowing, though PPO lines will likely continue to decline (remaining below zero) throughout most of the week.
4. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100): The ADVPL could be the first to show signs of rising inflows after an intense drop. In contrast, the McClellan Summation Index could flatten near current levels — a prerequisite for eventual bottoming.

📌 Target and Scenario Considerations:

📍 Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: 7,700 (EMA 143, Pivot S1)

• Resistance: 8,200–8,300 (Pivot P), 8,500 (R1)

Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the table data, it is evident that smaller and mid-cap segments saw the first technical relief after heavy liquidation, while large caps and the total market remained under selling pressure. This dispersion suggests selective bottom-fishing, not yet a sustained trend reversal, with the overall index falling by 3.39% over the last week. The chart above highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Among these, Bitcoin stood out, outperforming other segments with only a 1.92% loss over the past thirty days.

While the broader market has trended sideways, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit different performance dynamics.

Performance Trends by Market Segment:

✔ NWS30, Bitcoin, and NWSBE  led the market,

✔ Ether has been improving.

✔ NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens), NWSL100 (Large Caps) , and NWSCo100 (Coins) lagged.

Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as measured by the NWST1100 index, to that of shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans multiple timeframes, providing insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 47 Months Ago: Digital assets showcased a notable outperformance against shares in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • Over the past twelve months, digital assets have outperformed equities by 26.4%.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • Over the past 143 working days, the average quotient price, represented by the blue-dashed curve, stands at 11.04, while the current spot ratio is 10.27. This is higher than the long-term mean of 8.90, which has increased since October.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices tend to revert to their historical average returns over time. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are still trading at a relative premium to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it provides a consistent benchmark for comparing historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has risen by 44.99%  over the past twelve months. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a gain of 5.1% relative to the current index price, reflecting unprofitable purchases due to high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend, when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, representing global capital market shares, has risen 15.13% over the past twelve months. However, a strategy of daily purchases would have yielded an 11.1% gain.
• Conclusion:
  

  The recent pullback highlights a fundamental truth in crypto investing: market swings define opportunity. Historically, digital assets have significantly outperformed global equities, but their returns often come in concentrated bursts that follow periods of pessimism and capitulation. Prices have fallen below the 143-day EMA, positioning the market at a technically and psychologically critical juncture. Looking ahead, sentiment-driven capitulations often create conditions for stronger rebounds, especially when paired with structural oversold signals. While caution remains warranted in the short term, current price levels could present compelling opportunities for disciplined investors preparing for the next leg in crypto’s broader market cycle.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.