2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Oct-3

The crypto index NWST1100 soared 11.84% last week. Large caps, represented by the NWSL100 index, have outperformed other segments, rising by 13.98% over the previous thirty days.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but it effectively displays essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

After conducting a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market, several essential market dynamics and changes in market sentiment are revealed:

The NWST1100 index rebounded by 11.84% last week after holding its lower channel boundary — a key inflection zone that triggered a strong bullish reversal. Early in the week, price action was unstable, oscillating around the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels. The decisive shift came on September 29, when a broad-based rally propelled the index above both resistance levels, breaking the short-term downtrend. The bullish impulse extended into the start of October, as the index advanced above the 0.618 Fibonacci level and, on October 2, cleared 0.786, turning it into fresh support. By Friday, NWST1100 consolidated near resistance R1, confirming the transition from a correction to a renewed uptrend.

Market Sentiment (PPO & RSI): The PPO lines turned upward after flattening in late September, confirming a momentum reversal from negative to positive. The PPO histogram crossed into positive territory, showing growing strength in bullish momentum. The RSI rose sharply to 64.8, signaling firm but not overextended momentum, a sign of sustained accumulation rather than speculative excess..

Crypto Market Breadth indicators: The Advance-Decline Volume Line (ADVL), adapted by 2100News for the crypto market as ADVPL, tracks the net money volume of advancing versus declining digital assets. It surged, confirming strong inflows into advancing assets.. The McClellan Summation Index, a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator that measures market breadth, also turned higher, reversing its prior downtrend and reinforcing the breadth recovery.

According to the chart on the right, all A50R indicators across all major segments (NWST1100, NWSET100, NWSL100, NWSCo100) have improved dramatically — the percentage of assets above their 50-day EMA increased from 22% → 38% for the NWST1100, indicating a broad but still early-stage recovery. Large Caps (NWSL100) and Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100) led the advance, while Coins (NWSCo100) caught up moderately later in the week. This recovery confirmed the view that the previous week’s lower-band test represented exhaustion rather than a breakdown.

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above the 50-day EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

📉 Summary

In Summary, the crypto market staged a sharp rebound from the lower boundary of its trading channel, invalidating the prior breakdown attempt. The crypto market completed a full Fibonacci recovery sequence (0.38 → 0.5 → 0.62 → 0.78), confirming a re-entry into the upper half of the Bollinger and Keltner bands.
Momentum and breadth have both turned upward, with leadership rotating back to Ether, while Bitcoin provided steady support for the broader move. The tone has shifted from defensive to constructive, though short-term overextension risks may emerge if support at fib 0.78 fails.

Outlook for this week

This report examines the cryptocurrency market’s short-term outlook, identifying patterns and signals that may offer insights into potential market direction. While predicting market behavior is inherently uncertain, discernible trends in momentum and market breadth indicators suggest possible developments.

1. This week’s outlook suggests a potential continuation of the bullish impulse that began in late September, with technical conditions aligning for a possible breakout to new yearly highs.
2. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stood at 65 last week and may remain in a strong uptrend, continuing to rise toward the overbought zone (>70) as momentum expands. Given the market’s strength, this process could unfold gradually over the week — consistent with sustained accumulation rather than an overextended spike.
3. The PPO histogram, which measures the rate of change (i.e., the first derivative) of PPO lines, has been rising for more than a week and is expected to remain firmly positive throughout the current period. As long as it stays positive, the PPO lines will continue to advance, confirming a reinforcing momentum cycle and sustaining a bullish regime.
4. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100): The ADVPL could be the first to show signs of cooling inflows after an intense surge; a mild pullback or plateau would be natural at this stage. In contrast, the McClellan Summation Index turned upward only last week and still has room to rise, confirming that internal market participation is broadening, not contracting.

📌 Target and Scenario Considerations:

📍 Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: 9,000 (former resistance, now structural support), 8,800 (Pivot P)

• Resistance: 9,300 (Pivot R2)

Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it is evident that the crypto market has rallied sharply, with the overall index soaring 11.84% over the last week. The chart above highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Among these, large caps (NWSL100) stood out, slightly outperforming other segments with a 13.98% gain over the past thirty days.

While the broader market has trended sideways, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit different performance dynamics.

Performance Trends by Market Segment:

✔ NWS30, Bitcoin, and NWSBE  led the market,

✔ NWSL100 (Large Caps)  has been weakening after prior leadership.

✔ NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens), Ether, and NWSCo100 (Coins) lagged.

Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, providing insights into both historical and recent performances, as well as potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 47 Months Ago: Digital assets showcased a notable outperformance against shares in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • Over the past twelve months, digital assets have outperformed equities by 60.2%.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • Over the past 143 working days, the average quotient price, represented by a blue dashed curve, stands at 11.02, while the current spot ratio is 12.01. This is higher than the long-term mean of 8.81, which has increased since October.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices tend to revert to their historical average returns over time. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are still trading at a relative premium to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it offers a consistent benchmark to compare historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has risen by 87.61%  over the past twelve months. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a gain of 26.8% on the current index price, reflecting unprofitable purchases due to high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, representing global capital market shares, has risen 17.56% over the past twelve months. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 13.4%.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.