2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Jun-20

The NWST1100 index has fallen by 3.61% from the previous week; Kaia (KAIA), a large-cap non-Ethereum-based token, has made the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index biweekly.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

Our detailed analysis of the NWST1100 chart and related market indicators reveals essential insights into the current market conditions:

The NWST1100 index tumbled by -3.16% over the past week, led by steep losses in Ethereum and most altcoin sectors, which collectively lowered the broader market. The index began the week with a modest rebound attempt but failed to overcome the critical resistance zone near 7,400, a level that had already rejected prior rallies. As momentum faded mid-week, the structure deteriorated further. Notably, the breakdown unfolded after several sessions of hovering near support, making the geopolitical shock more of a catalyst than a cause, accelerating an already weakening technical structure. A sharp capitulation sell-off occurred on Friday, coinciding with reports of renewed U.S. airstrikes on Iran, following earlier military action by Israel. This geopolitical escalation triggered panic in an already fragile market, unleashing a wave of fear-driven liquidations across digital assets. The index closed the week at 6,318, plunging to the lower boundary of its 3-month trading range and erasing nearly all gains from June.

1. Market sentiment: The Price Oscillator (PPO) lines continued to trend downward, while the PPO histogram fell deeper into negative territory, confirming an acceleration in bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) dropped sharply to 31.61, entering oversold territory—a zone that has sometimes triggered short-term bounce attempts in previous cycles.
2. We are now focusing on the breadth indicators at the bottom of the NWST1100 chart. The Advance-Decline Line (ADVL), which measures the number of advancing versus declining assets, dropped steeply, reflecting a decisive shift in market internals, with declining assets vastly outnumbering advancers.. The McClellan Summation Index, a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator that measures market breadth, declined steeply, confirming weakening long-term participation.

📉 Summary

The market has broken decisively below a critical technical zone. After multiple failed attempts to reclaim the 7,400 resistance, the structure unraveled mid-week and capitulated violently on Friday in reaction to geopolitical developments. The sharp sell-off confirmed a broader structural breakdown. The current setup reflects a fragile, oversold, and compressed environment, where bounce attempts may emerge, but trend repair will take time.

According to the chart on the right, all A50R indicators across all major segments (NWST1100, NWSET100, NWSL100, NWSCo100) fell below 10%, signaling that 90%+ of assets trade below their 50-day EMA, confirming market-wide structural weakness. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average.

*This breadth indicator is essential in measuring the internal strength or weakness of the underlying index. Looking at the chart on the right side, we can see the A50R lines for four different categories of digital assets:

1. The top box shows the A50R lines for 100 Large-cap members of NWSL100.
2. The middle box displays the A50R lines for 1100 members of NWST1100, which is the Total Index measuring the performance of significant crypto assets based on market capitalization.
3. The third box shows the A50R lines for 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100.
4. The bottom box represents the A50R lines for 100 Coins members of NWSCo100.

Outlook for the Week Ahead

This report aims to provide insights into the cryptocurrency market’s near-term outlook. While complete predictability remains challenging, the market waves show some degree of predictability with discernible patterns in market behavior. By examining momentum indicators, several signals emerge that offer insights into the potential direction of the market in the short term.

1. The RSI (Relative Strength Index), currently at 31, remains in oversold territory and may drift lower. However, a short-term relief rally is likely in the coming days, particularly if geopolitical tensions ease or quarter-end flows prompt rebalancing. Such bounces, while technically driven, may lack broad conviction.
2. The PPO lines signal that downward momentum is still in effect, though the rate of decline may begin to slow. Given the sharp technical damage caused by capitulation and macro shocks, an apparent reversal in PPO direction will likely take several sessions—if not weeks—to develop. While the PPO histogram may begin rising toward the zero line, values remain negative, indicating weak but gradually improving momentum. Any bounce from here should be viewed as corrective rather than trend-defining until a clear structure rebuilds.
3. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100), which reflect the participation of assets in the market movement, also suggest that recovery will be uneven, there is little evidence to expect a broad-based breadth rebound within a single week, but next week a mild rebound in the ADVL or flattening of the McClellan Summation Index may hint at early stabilization, not reversal.

📌 Target and Scenario Considerations:

Given the steep decline and widespread liquidation, it’s evident that any recovery must form beneath the 143-day EMA, which has shifted from support to dynamic resistance. While short-term upside toward this level is likely, a rejection at the 143-day EMA remains a real risk, especially without an improvement in breadth. If macro conditions improve or flows stabilize due to end-of-quarter positioning, a relief rally could test the 6,600–6,900 resistance zone. However, July’s historically weak seasonality tempers expectations for a lasting trend shift. The market will need time to digest recent losses and rebuild internal strength. Whether this upward leg evolves into a new trend or stalls beneath resistance will likely define the path for early Q3.

📍 Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: 6,250 (Pivot S1)

• Resistance: 6,600 (143-Day EMA ), 6,900 (Pivot P upper resistance zone)

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it can be seen that the crypto market encountered a steep decline; the overall index fell by 3.16% over the last week. The accompanying chart highlights the performance of key cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ether, alongside the 2100NEWS Indices, which track Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), large caps (NWSL100), and coins (NWSCo100). Bitcoin held up better than other segments and has significantly outperformed other segments, plunging 8.71% in the previous thirty days, but recent strength has waned.

While the broader market has dropped, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit different performance dynamics.

Performance Trends by Market Segment:

✔ NWSBE, Bitcoin, and NWS30 led the market with small losses,  

✔  Ether weakened, indicating declining strength.

✔  NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens), NWSL100 (Large Caps), and NWSCo100 (Coins) lagged.

Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, embodied by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. We draw insights into historical achievements and potential future trends by examining their performances over various time frames.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 43 Months Ago: Digital assets vastly outperformed global equities in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow index.
  • From twelve months ago to the Present, digital assets have outperformed equities by 10.3%.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • The average quotient price, represented by a blue dashed curve, has been 10.26 over the past 143 working days, while the current spot price is 10.10. This is higher than the long-term mean of 8.13, which has increased since October.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices, over time, tend to revert to their historical average returns. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are currently highly valued compared to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison (12-month Accumulation Method) & Strategic Investment Timing:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it offers a consistent benchmark to compare historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has risen by 22.23% from twelve months ago. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a gain of 7.7% on the current index price, despite unprofitable purchases due to high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, representing global capital market shares, grew by 10.08% over the past twelve months. However, a daily purchase strategy would have resulted in a 5.3% gain.
• Conclusion:
  

  The recent pullback highlights a fundamental truth in crypto investing: market swings define opportunity. Historically, digital assets have significantly outperformed global equities, but their returns often come in concentrated bursts that follow periods of pessimism and capitulation. Prices have fallen below the 143-day EMA, positioning the market at a technically and psychologically important juncture. Looking ahead, sentiment-driven capitulations—like the one sparked by recent geopolitical tensions—often create conditions for stronger rebounds, especially when paired with structural oversold signals. While caution remains warranted in the short term, current price levels could present compelling opportunities for disciplined investors preparing for the next leg in crypto’s broader market cycle.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow. 

Indices Revision 6-20-2025

Based on the latest biweekly revision, SPX6900 and Kaia improved their ranking and were added to the NWSL100 index. On the other hand, EigebLayer and Polyhedra Network were removed from the NWSL100 index. Several new mid-cap assets, including Liquity, Saros Finance, etc., have been added to the NWSM200 index. Each index’s presentation provides more information about the additions and deletions for other indices in the family.

Winning member

Congratulations to Kaia (KAIA) on achieving a significant milestone: being recognized as the winning member of the NWSL100 crypto index, which represents the most crucial leap in rank within the index.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view. 

Kaia (KAIA)  https://www.kaia.io/

KAIA Large-cap Non-Ethereum-based Token is 85th in the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSTo100, NWSOT50

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade:  Poor, 11.1 (Average for Large-caps: 17.4)

Over the last week, the average market cap was $991.0 million, and the average daily volume was $78.8 million.

Kaia is a high-performance public blockchain formed through the merger of the Klaytn and Finschia blockchains, initially developed by Kakao and LINE, respectively. This integration has created Asia’s largest Web3 ecosystem, seamlessly integrated with the Kakaotalk and LINE messenger apps, which collectively boast over 250 million users. Kaia allows users to engage with Web3 technologies with the ease and speed of Web2, all within their preferred messenger superapps. This integration enables users to connect, create, collaborate, and contribute to the ecosystem, bridging the gap between traditional and decentralized digital experiences.