2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Jun-13

The crypto index NWST1100 increased by 0.64%. Bitcoin has outperformed other segments, rising by 2.76% in the previous thirty days.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the graph shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

After conducting a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market, reveals several essential market dynamics and changes in market sentiment:

The NWST1100: The index advanced during the first two trading days of the week, reaching a high of 7,389, where it tested but failed to breach the critical resistance zone near 7,400. This level, coinciding with historical supply and Pivot R1, acted as a firm ceiling. The inability to break through triggered a three-day pullback, sending the index back to its starting level near 6,917, effectively completing a full round-trip reversal.

Market Sentiment (PPO & RSI): The PPO histogram remained in negative territory, but showed signs of a curved bottoming pattern, hinting at an early-stage inflection, though still lacking confirmation of bullish strength. The PPO lines continued to slope downward, but started to consolidate near the zero line. Meanwhile, the RSI hovered near the neutral line, closing at 44.62, reflecting a market caught between momentum recovery and resistance-induced hesitation.

Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart further confirm that internal market strength weakened. The McClellan Summation Index, which tracks long-term participation trends, rebounded, peaked early in the week, and has since declined. Similarly, the Advance-Decline Line (ADL) continued to fall, highlighting a rise in declining assets relative to advancers. This week validated how fragile upside structure can become without broad participation.

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above the 50-day EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

Outlook for this week

This report delves into the cryptocurrency market’s short-term outlook, identifying patterns and signals that could provide insights into potential market direction. While predicting market behavior is inherently uncertain, discernible trends in momentum and market breadth indicators suggest possible developments.

1. The PPO histogram, which reflects the rhythm and rate of change in market momentum, has been hovering near the zero line—the midpoint of its cycle. While it remains in negative territory, it has begun to curve upward, suggesting a potential transition into the positive phase of its wave in the coming days. This development hints that PPO lines may rebound off the zero line, signaling a possible shift toward renewed bullish momentum.

2. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently at 45, with a modest upward slope. While still in neutral territory, this rising pattern may point to a gradual recovery in momentum, potentially marking the early stages of a rebound. However, it has not yet reached levels confirming broad-based strength or trend continuation.

3. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) and the McClellan Summation Index on the chart below may continue to flatten, showing narrow participation in any attempted rebound. The decline in broad market participation implies that rebounds, if they occur, are likely to be short-lived without a broader recovery in sentiment.

In conclusion, the market will likely remain within a well-defined consolidation range between 6,900 and 7,450. A leg toward the 7,450 resistance zone—corresponding with horizontal resistance and Pivot R1—is expected during the first half of the week. This zone has repeatedly capped rallies, serving as a critical decision point. A fourth breakout attempt above this resistance may unfold if momentum and breadth improve meaningfully. While previous attempts have failed, improving internals could give this one a moderate chance of success. A successful breakout would open the door to a trend continuation. On the other hand, another rejection could trigger a reversion back toward support near the 143-day EMA, reinforcing the range-bound structure between dynamic support and structural resistance at 7,400.

📍 Key levels to watch:
Support: 6900 (Pivot P)

Resistance: 7,450 (horizontal resistance), 7,650 (Pivot R1 upper resistance zone)

Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it can be seen that the crypto market hovered in a range-bound pattern, and the overall index has increased by 0.64% over the last week. The chart above highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Bitcoin held up better than other segments and has slightly outperformed other segments, rising by 2.76% in the previous thirty days.

While the broader market has consolidated, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit different performance dynamics.

Performance Trends by Market Segment:

✔ NWSBE, Bitcoin, and NWS30  led the market,

✔ Ether weakened, indicating declining strength.

✔ NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens), NWSCo100 (Coins), and NWSL100 (Large Caps) lagged.

Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, offering insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 43 Months Ago: Digital assets showcased a notable outperformance against shares in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • Twelve months ago to Present, digital assets have outperformed equities by 9.2%.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • Over the past 143 working days, the average quotient price, represented by a blue dashed curve, stands at 10.26, while the current spot ratio is 10.38. This is higher than the long-term mean of 8.09, which has increased since October.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices tend to revert to their historical average returns over time. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are still trading at a relative premium to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it offers a consistent benchmark to compare historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has risen by 21.23%  from twelve months ago. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a gain of 11.5% on the current index price, reflecting unprofitable purchases due to high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, representing global capital market shares, has risen 11.09% over the past twelve months. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 6.0%.
• Conclusion:

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.