2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT May-30

The crypto index NWST1100 fell by 4.07%, ending a six-week winning streak. Ether has outperformed other segments, leaping 38.24% in the previous thirty days.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the graph shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

After conducting a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market, reveals several essential market dynamics and changes in market sentiment:

The NWST1100: The index declined by -4.07%, ending a six-week winning streak. The strong rally that followed Ethereum’s Pectra-driven surge has now decisively lost momentum. After consolidating briefly above the 7,400 level, the index broke down and closed the week near 7,000. On May 30, a bearish double-bottom breakdown appeared on the Point & Figure chart, establishing a near-term downside target at 7,000 points. Sentiment across the market turned risk-off, with notable losses across all major sectors. Even Ethereum, the recent leader, shifted into the Weakening quadrant on the RRG® chart, while broad-based selling pressured every segment.

Market Sentiment (PPO & RSI): The PPO histogram flipped negatively. The PPO lines continued to slope downward, showing that upward momentum had reversed. Meanwhile, the RSI fell sharply to 49, falling below neutral territory and confirming the breakdown in bullish pressure.

Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart further confirm that internal market strength weakened substantially. The McClellan Summation Index, which tracks long-term participation trends, turned decisively negative. Similarly, the Advance-Decline Line (ADL) continued to fall, highlighting a rise in declining assets relative to advancers. This week validated how fragile upside structure can become without broad participation.

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above the 50-day EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

Outlook for this week

This report delves into the cryptocurrency market’s short-term outlook, identifying patterns and signals that could provide insights into potential market direction. While predicting market behavior is inherently uncertain, discernible trends in momentum and market breadth indicators suggest possible developments.

1. The PPO histogram, which reflects the rhythm and rate of change in market momentum, has been in a negative phase in the lower half of its wave, indicating that the momentum cycle has shifted into its declining leg. Historically, this leg of the cycle, after momentum shifts and starting negative phase,  can last up to twenty sessions; further weakness remains likely. This suggests that PPO lines may point downward and are halfway to the zero line, indicating that weakening momentum may persist unless a sharp reversal emerges.

2. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently at 49, confirming the bullish momentum has dissipated. It now sits just below the midpoint, indicating the market is entering neutral-to-weak territory rather than maintaining overbought conditions.

3. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) and the McClellan Summation Index on the chart below may extend the falling period, showing that fewer assets participate in any attempted rebound. This confirms that the current correction phase is broad-based and not limited to a few underperformers. The decline in broad market participation implies that rebounds, if they occur, are likely to be short-lived without a wider recovery in sentiment.

In conclusion, the market has been in a consolidation phase, with exhausted momentum and declining breadth. The depth and duration of this correction will largely hinge on whether support holds at the 25-day EMA (~6900), which also aligns with the 0.78 Fibonacci retracement. If this zone holds, it may act as the bottom of a sideways range, setting the stage for horizontal consolidation. However, failure at this level would open the door to a more profound decline toward the Pivot P level or even the 143-day EMA (~6500), which could serve as a more structural support area. Regardless of the near-term path, this phase will likely determine the setup for the next major leg, whether it’s continuation or reversal.

📍 Key levels to watch:
Support: 6900 (Pivot P / 25-day EMA / 0.78 Fib)
Deeper support: 6500 (143-day EMA )

Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it can be seen that the crypto market started a pullback, and the overall index has fallen by 4.07% over the last week. The chart above highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Ether held up better than other segments and has significantly outperformed other segments, soaring 38.24% in the previous thirty days.

While the broader market has consolidated, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit different performance dynamics.

Performance Trends by Market Segment:

✔ NWSBE and NWS30  led the market,

✔ Bitcoin improved,  showing relative strength.
✔ Ether weakened, indicating declining strength.

✔ NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens), NWSCo100 (Coins), and NWSL100 (Large Caps) lagged.

Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, offering insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 43 Months Ago: Digital assets showcased a notable outperformance against shares in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • Twelve months ago to Present, digital assets have outperformed equities by 3.8%.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • Over the past 143 working days, the average quotient price, represented by a blue dashed curve, stands at 10.21, while the current spot ratio is 10.60. This is higher than the long-term mean of 7.95, which has increased since October.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices tend to revert to their historical average returns over time. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are still trading at a relative premium to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it offers a consistent benchmark to compare historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has risen by 15.39%  from twelve months ago. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a gain of 13.8% on the current index price, reflecting unprofitable purchases due to high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, representing global capital market shares, has risen 12.12% over the past twelve months. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 5.2%.
• Conclusion:

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.