2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT May-2

The crypto index NWST1100 rose by 1.48% last week, marking three consecutive weeks of gains. However, the momentum appears to be slowing. Bitcoin has outperformed other segments, surging by 12.88% in the previous thirty days.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the graph shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

After conducting a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market, reveals several essential market dynamics and changes in market sentiment:

The NWST1100: The index posted a gain of 1.48%, marking a third consecutive week of positive performance, although the pace of growth has slowed. The market is entering a consolidation phase after the explosive rebound in late April. Price action shows signs of digestion just below key resistance levels.

Market Sentiment (PPO & RSI): The PPO histogram has started falling, signaling a potential slowdown in bullish momentum. However, the PPO lines have remained above the zero line. The RSI is elevated at 64.96, still within bullish territory, but no longer surging.

Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart add another dimension. The McClellan Summation Index, tracking long-term market breadth, has continued climbing slowly, indicating improving participation. The Advance-Decline Line peaked.

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above the 50-day EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

Outlook for this week

This report delves into the cryptocurrency market’s short-term outlook, identifying patterns and signals that could provide insights into potential market direction. While predicting market behavior is inherently uncertain, discernible trends in momentum and market breadth indicators suggest possible developments.

1. Point & Figure analysis confirmed a bullish structure with a target at 6750, but the price has paused near resistance just below 6400. This hesitation coincides with a potential momentum shift.

2. The PPO histogram, which reflects the rate of change in momentum and its rhythm, suggests we are entering the lower part of the wave, where histogram values turn negative. Even under optimistic assumptions, this phase typically lasts an entire week, like early October. This development implies a trend reversal in the PPO lines. Therefore, the recent bullish momentum appears exhausted, and at least a short-term correction is expected.

3. The RSI (Relative Strength Index), with a current reading of 65, may continue to drift lower from its recent high, reinforcing the case for a short-term consolidation or retracement.

4. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) and the rising McClellan Summation Index on the chart below may change direction to falling.

In conclusion, the market development implies a trend reversal in the PPO lines, as negative histogram bars are often a precursor to downward crossovers. Therefore, the recent bullish momentum appears exhausted, and at least a short-term correction is expected. The size of this correction will largely depend on whether support holds at the 25-day EMA, which also aligns with the 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level. If this support zone fails, the pullback may extend toward the pivot P area, which coincides with the 0.62 Fibonacci level.

📍 Key levels to watch:
Support: 6250 / 5895 (25-day EMA / 0.78 Fib)
Deeper support: 5550 (Pivot P / 0.62 Fib)

Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it can be seen that the crypto market encountered resistance after a three-week climb toward the 143-day moving average, and the overall index has increased by 1.48% over the last week. The chart above highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Bitcoin held up better than other segments and has outperformed other segments, suging by 12.88% in the previous thirty days.

While the broader market has experienced a rally, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit different performance dynamics.

Performance Trends by Market Segment:

✔ Ether, NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens), and NWSL100 (Large Caps) improved,  showing relative strength.
✔ Bitcoin and NWSBE  weakened, indicating declining strength.

✔ NWS30 and NWSCo100 (Coins) lagged.

Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, offering insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 42 Months Ago: Digital assets showcased a notable outperformance against shares in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • Twelve months ago to Present, digital assets have outperformed equities by 1.0%.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • Over the past 143 working days, the average quotient price, represented by a blue dashed curve, stands at 10.03, as the current spot ratio. This is higher than the long-term mean of 7.77, which has increased since October.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices tend to revert to their historical average returns over time. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are still trading at a relative premium to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it offers a consistent benchmark to compare historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has risen by 9.77%  from twelve months ago. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a gain of 3.5% on the current index price, reflecting unprofitable purchases due to high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, representing global capital market shares, has risen 9.67% over the past twelve months. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 0.7%.
• Conclusion:

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.