2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Apr-18

The crypto index NWST1100 rose by 1.01% last week. Bitcoin has outperformed other segments, increasing by 3.92% in the previous thirty days.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the graph shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

After conducting a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market, reveals several essential market dynamics and changes in market sentiment:

The NWST1100: The index rose by +1.01% last week, confirming the market’s attempt to rebound from multi-month lows. Price action remained volatile, but higher lows and a sustained push above the 5330 support zone suggest a shift in sentiment. Buying interest continues to emerge near the 4915 bottom, further strengthening the bullish case.

⚖️ Crypto Showing Early Signs of Recovery

Market Sentiment (PPO & RSI): The PPO histogram has turned positive, and the PPO lines are approaching the zero line. The RSI climbed to 50.22, signaling the market is no longer oversold and is entering a more neutral-to-bullish regime.

Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart add another dimension. The McClellan Summation Index, tracking long-term market breadth, has also turned positive, reinforcing the breadth-led recovery. The Advance-Decline Line has deteriorated further.

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above the 50-day EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

Outlook for this week

This report delves into the cryptocurrency market’s short-term outlook, identifying patterns and signals that could provide insights into potential market direction. While predicting market behavior is inherently uncertain, discernible trends in momentum and market breadth indicators suggest possible developments.

1. Point & Figure analysis confirmed a breakout above 5550, with a target at 6750.

2. The PPO lines may continue their ascent and touch the zero line — a key potential trigger for renewed momentum, with the histogram likely remaining positive. However, a peak in the histogram could occur by week’s end, hinting at slowing bullish momentum.

3. The RSI (Relative Strength Index), with a current reading of 50, suggests the market is moving into a balanced momentum phase, with room for upward continuation.
4. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) and the rising McClellan Summation Index on the chart below may continue improving, reflecting

   broader participation in the recovery.

5.  Oversold conditions, particularly evident across A50R indicators, may gradually resolve, particularly visible in the A50R lines.

In conclusion, the market is attempting a breakout after four months of lower highs. Momentum has turned, and technical patterns support the bullish narrative. However, resistance could prove too strong when the PPO line touches the zero level. If the rally lacks sufficient strength, a rejection toward the end of the week remains a possible scenario. However, there is a decent chance for a fast rally toward the pivot P or even the red line representing the 143-day EMA. A further bullish signal would be triggered if the 10-day EMA exceeds the 25-day EMA for the first time in four months.

📍 Key levels to watch:
Support: 5330 / 5075
Resistance: 5900 / 6250

Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it can be seen that an attempt at recovery swept crypto segments, and the overall index has increased by 1.01% over the last week. The chart above highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Bitcoin held up better than other segments. Ethereum and coin-based segments have underperformed sharply. However, Bitcoin has outperformed other segments, rising by 3.92% in the previous thirty days.

While the broader market is experiencing a downward trend, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit varied performance dynamics. NWSCo100 and NWSL100 was improving,   Bitcoin, NWSBE, and NWS30 were wekening, Ether and NWSET100 lagged. Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, offering insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 41 Months Ago: Digital assets showcased a notable outperformance against shares in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • Twelve months ago to Present, digital assets have underperformed equities by 3.5%, indicating a shift in returns that favors equities in this timeframe.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • Over the past 143 working days, the average quotient price, represented by a blue dashed curve, stands at 10.02, while the current spot ratio is 9.47. This is higher than the long-term mean of 7.69, which has increased since October.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices tend to revert to their historical average returns over time. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are still trading at a relative premium to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it offers a consistent benchmark to compare historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has increased by 2.03%  from twelve months ago. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a loss of 7.0% on the current index price, reflecting unprofitable purchases due to high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, representing global capital market shares, has risen by 5.36% over the past twelve months. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a loss of 4.1%.

• Conclusion: While crypto has underperformed global equities over the past year, the recent pullback, significantly below the 143-day moving average, may present attractive reentry opportunities. Historical data suggests that accumulation during such phases often yields superior returns once sentiment reverses. These current losses:

  • primarily reflect the behavior of those who bought too high during last year’s hype,

  • mean lower valuations, offering better entry points and more substantial potential for future returns.

While crypto continues to lag global equities, the recent pullback and oversold readings suggest selective reentry points may emerge, especially for long-term allocators.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.