2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Apr-4

The crypto index NWST1100 has fallen by 2.40% over the last week. Bitcoin has outperformed other segments, losing 12.89% in the previous thirty days.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the graph shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

After conducting a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market, reveals several essential market dynamics and changes in market sentiment:

The NWST1100: The index declined by -2.40%, erasing the previous rebound and approaching its early March low. The digital asset market experienced broad-based weakness, although it showed relative resilience compared to traditional markets. Global financial markets fell sharply as U.S. tariff threats against China triggered a wave of uncertainty and risk-off sentiment. Equities saw steep losses, with the Dow Jones Global Index (DJW) breaking key support, confirming the deepening correction. In contrast to equities, digital assets held up comparatively well

Market Sentiment (PPO & RSI): The PPO histogram remains below zero, while the PPO lines are flattening. RSI has hovered around the 39 level, confirming the weakness in momentum.

Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart add another dimension. The McClellan Summation Index, tracking long-term market breadth, has shown signs of plateauing. The Advance-Decline Line has deteriorated further.

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above the 50-day EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

Outlook for this week

This report delves into the cryptocurrency market’s short-term outlook, identifying patterns and signals that could provide insights into potential market direction. While predicting market behavior is inherently uncertain, discernible trends in momentum and market breadth indicators suggest possible developments.

1. Point & Figure analysis sets a downside target of 5100, pointing to potential for further downside if selling pressure breaks the red dashed support trendline.

2. The PPO lines may continue their descent, with the histogram likely remaining negative. However, a rise in the histogram could occur by week’s end, hinting at slowing bearish momentum and raising the probability of relief rallies.

3. The RSI (Relative Strength Index), with a current reading of 39, signals that the market is nearing the oversold territory. It could touch oversold territory for a while, historical behavior suggests this could soon trigger a short-term relief rally.
4. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) and the falling McClellan Summation Index on the chart below may continue falling, reflecting weak participation.
5. Extreme oversold conditions, particularly evident across A50R indicators, may soon exhaust themselves. Historically, such extremes often precede stabilization phases or sustained rebounds.
6. Red ellipses on the NWST1100 chart mark a historical parallel: September 2024’s rebound also started from a deeply oversold and narrow-range base. A similar setup is forming now.

In conclusion, the market is poised for potential short-term volatility. If reversal comes, it could be sharp and rapid, as is typical when liquidity is low and sentiment pivots.

Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it can be seen that a broad-based selloff swept all crypto segments, and the overall index has fallen by 2.40% over the last week. The chart above highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Bitcoin held up better than other segments, but the broader crypto market shows sustained deterioration. Ethereum and coin-based segments have underperformed sharply. Capital continues to concentrate in BTC while broader sentiment and liquidity remain suppressed. However, Bitcoin has outperformed other segments, losing 12.89% in the previous thirty days.

While the broader market is experiencing a downward trend, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit varied performance dynamics. Bitcoin, NWSBE and NWS30 led, Ether was improving,  NWSET100 was wekening,, NWSCo100 and NWSL100 lagged. Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, offering insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 41 Months Ago: Digital assets showcased a notable outperformance against shares in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • Twelve months ago to Present, digital assets have underperformed equities by 4.8%, indicating a shift in returns that favors equities in this timeframe.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • Over the past 143 working days, the average quotient price, represented by a blue dashed curve, stands at 10.12, while the current spot ratio is 9.98. This is higher than the long-term mean of 7.62, which has increased since October.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices tend to revert to their historical average returns over time. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are

    still trading at a relative premium to historical trends.

• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it offers a consistent benchmark to compare historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has declined by 7.39%  relative to last year’s period. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a loss of 6.1% on the current index price, reflecting unprofitable purchases due to high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, representing global capital market shares, has decreased by 1.75% over the past twelve months. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a more significant loss of 7.6%.

• Conclusion: While crypto has underperformed global equities over the past year, the recent pullback, significantly below the 143-day moving average, may present attractive reentry opportunities. Historical data suggests that accumulation during such phases often yields superior returns once sentiment reverses. These current losses:

  • primarily reflect the behavior of those who bought too high during last year’s hype,

  • mean lower valuations, offering better entry points and more substantial potential for future returns.

While crypto continues to lag global equities, the recent pullback and oversold readings suggest selective reentry points may emerge, especially for long-term allocators.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.