2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Mar-28

The NWST1100 index has decreased by 0.60% from the previous week. PancakeSwap (CAKE), a large-cap non-Ethereum-based Token, has biweekly made the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

Our detailed analysis of the NWST1100 chart and related market indicators reveals essential insights into the current market conditions:

Over the last week, the NWST1100 index declined by -0.60%, giving back part of the prior week’s modest rebound. The market continues to test the lower end of its recent range.

1. Market sentiment: The Price Oscillator (PPO) lines have turned down again, and the histogram was nearing negative territory. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) also retreated, currently hovering just below the 40 level, confirming continued weakness in momentum.
2. We are now focusing on the breadth indicators at the bottom of the NWST1100 chart. The Advance-Decline Line (ADVL), which measures the number of advancing versus declining assets, has plummeted. The McClellan Summation Index, a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator that measures market breadth, has rolled over again, suggesting a renewed phase of internal deterioration.

📉 Summary

The market failed to build on last week’s tentative gains. Indicators remain subdued across the board, with oversold conditions persisting. Participation remains limited, especially among small- and mid-cap segments, while leadership is narrow and fragile.

According to the chart on the right, all A50R indicators across all major segments (NWST1100, NWSET100, NWSL100, NWSCo100) have remained at deeply depressed levels, with over 88% of digital assets trading below their 50-day moving averages. This extended oversold state shows no meaningful sign of reversal. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average. 

*This breadth indicator is essential in measuring the internal strength or weakness of the underlying index. Looking at the chart on the right side, we can see the A50R lines for four different categories of digital assets:

1. The top box shows the A50R lines for 100 Large-cap members of NWSL100.
2. The middle box displays the A50R lines for 1100 members of NWST1100, which is the Total Index measuring the performance of significant crypto assets based on market capitalization.
3. The third box shows the A50R lines for 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100.
4. The bottom box represents the A50R lines for 100 Coins members of NWSCo100., tako

Outlook for the Week Ahead

This report aims to provide insights into the cryptocurrency market’s near-term outlook. While complete predictability remains challenging, the market waves show some degree of predictability with discernible patterns in market behavior. By examining momentum indicators, several signals emerge that offer insights into the potential direction of the market in the short term.

1. The RSI (Relative Strength Index), with a current reading of 37, has slipped back under 40, further confirming that momentum remains weak.
2. The PPO lines measure the market’s momentum, which may start rising by the end of the week. Still, the PPO histogram may change direction to positive in the second half of the week, hinting at a possible slowdown in bearish momentum.
3. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100), which reflect the participation of assets in the market movement, may suggest that the slight decrease in participation may continue.
4. Oversold conditions on key indicators like the A50R lines suggest the market may soon approach a potential recovery zone.

In conclusion, after four months of lower highs, the market lost momentum after a third failed attempt to break above the green descending trendline. This coincides with the PPO lines approaching the zero line, signaling fading bullish momentum. The PPO histogram has completed half its descent, with a dip into negative territory likely ahead. We may see approximately five more days of downward drift, potentially retesting the early March lows. Red ellipses on the first chart highlight a similar situation observed in late August and early September of last year. Should a reversal occur, it would likely be sharp and fast-moving, starting by the end of the week.

Key levels to watch: Support: 5480 / 5125

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, a broad-based weakness was defined for the week. Only a few segments managed to stay in the green; the overall index has decreased by 0.60% over the last week. The chart above highlights the performance of key cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ether, alongside the 2100NEWS Indices, which track the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Bitcoin has shown greater resilience, outperforming other segments despite declining 1.46% in the previous thirty days.

While the broader market has experienced a downtrend, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit different performance dynamics.

Performance Trends by Market Segment:

✔ NWSL100 (Large Caps) and NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens) led the market, showing relative strength.
✔ Ether and NWSCo100 (Coins) improved, signaling a potential shift in momentum.
✔ Bitcoin, NWS30, and NWSBE weakened, indicating declining strength.

Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, embodied by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. We draw insights into historical achievements and potential future trends by examining their performances over various time frames.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 40 Months Ago: Digital assets vastly outperformed global equities in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow index.
  • From twelve months ago to the Present, digital assets have underperformed equities by 15.5%, indicating a shift in returns that favors traditional equities in this timeframe.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • The average quotient price, represented by a blue dashed curve, has been 10.18 over the past 143 working days, while the current spot price is 9.41. This is higher than the long-term mean of 7.58, which has increased since October.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices, over time, tend to revert to their historical average returns. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are currently highly valued compared to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison (12-month Accumulation Method) & Strategic Investment Timing:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it offers a consistent benchmark to compare historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has declined by 10.89%  relative to last year’s period. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a loss of 3.5% on the current index price, reflecting unprofitable purchases due to high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • Contrasting with the crypto index, the DJW, representing global capital market shares, grew by 5.45% over the past twelve months. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 0.5%.
• Conclusion: While crypto has underperformed global equities over the past year, the recent pullback, significantly below the 143-day moving average, may present attractive reentry opportunities. Historical data suggests that accumulation during such phases often yields superior returns once sentiment reverses. I’ve noticed that new investors tend to flee at the mention of losses. But these current losses primarily reflect the behavior of those who bought too high during last year’s hype. These losses mean lower valuations, offering better entry points and more substantial potential for future returns.

  While crypto continues to lag global equities, the recent pullback and oversold readings suggest selective reentry points may emerge, especially for long-term allocators.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow. 

Indices Revision 3-28-2025

Based on the latest biweekly revision, several new mid-cap assets, including Brett (Based), Plume Network, Gigachad, etc., have been added to the NWSM200 index. Each index’s presentation provides more information about the additions and deletions for other indices in the family.

Winning member

Congratulations to PancakeSwap (CAKE) on achieving a significant milestone: being recognized as the winning member of the NWSL100 crypto index, which represents the most crucial leap in rank within the index.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view. 

PancakeSwap (CAKE)  https://pancakeswap.finance/

CAKE Large-cap Non-Ethereum-based Token is 74th in the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSTo100, NWSOT50

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade:  Poor, 16.8 (Average for Large-caps: 17.8)

Over the last week, the average market cap was $702.3 million, and the average daily volume was $229.1 million.

Pancakeswap was initially built on the BNB Chain and allows users to trade tokens without using a centralized exchange. It provides an array of products, such as: (1) An exchange to swap tokens; (2) A yield farm to earn rewards; (3) Syrup pools to stake CAKE tokens; (4) Ethereum liquid staking (wBETH) and simple staking; (5) Pancake Protectors game; (6) v3 position manager (new feature); (7) A prediction market; (8) Initial Farm Offering (IFO) token launches; (9) A bridge to bridge CAKE to Ethereum and Aptos; (10) A lottery; (11) An NFT marketplace. Pancakeswap innovates quickly and ships new products regularly. In April 2023, PancakeSwap voted to transition to a deflationary token model called “Ultrasound CAKE.” The protocol passed a proposal called CAKE Tokenomics v2.5 to create a structure combining real yield (no supply impact) and reduced token emissions.