2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT May-31

The NWST1100 index fell 0.97% from the previous week. Notcoin (NOT), a large-cap Non-Ethereum Token, has biweekly made the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

Our previous analysis predicted that a significant upward breakthrough was unlikely. Instead, prices would expected to hover within a range (the upper segment of the Keltner Channel). Our detailed analysis of the NWST1100 chart and related market indicators reveals essential insights into the current market conditions:

1. The analysis of the NWST1100 chart shows that the index was hovering at the upper segment of the Keltner Channel, and the support represented by the 10-Days EMA was tested. The market has shown signs of consolidation after the SEC approved several spot Ethereum ETFs.
2. Market sentiment: The Price Oscillator (PPO) lines and histogram bars showed the downward trend in prices might be losing momentum. This is supported by the RSI (Relative Strength Index), which has remained in neutral territory but has fallen, indicating that while the market is not oversold, there is a cautious sentiment among traders.
3. We are now focusing on the breadth indicators at the bottom of the NWST1100 chart. A flat trend in the Advance-Decline Line (ADVL) and the McClellan Summation Index reinforces the idea of market indecision and consolidation.

Considering these indicators and the seasonal trend (sell in May), the index would have likely been lower. However, the significant event (the SEC’s approval of the Ethereum ETF) provided a bullish push to the market, counterbalancing the previously mentioned negative factors and stabilizing the index.

According to the chart on the right, three of four A50R lines were settled in the neutral territory. This condition suggests that a significant number of cryptocurrencies are trading near their 50-day moving averages. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average. 

*This breadth indicator is essential in measuring the internal strength or weakness of the underlying index. Looking at the chart on the right side, we can see the A50R lines for four different categories of digital assets:

1. The top box shows the A50R lines for 100 Large-cap members of NWSL100.
2. The middle box displays the A50R lines for 1100 members of NWST1100, which is the Total Index measuring the performance of significant crypto assets based on market capitalization.
3. The third box shows the A50R lines for 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100.
4. The bottom box represents the A50R lines for 100 Coins members of NWSCo100., tako

Outlook for this week

This report aims to provide insights into the cryptocurrency market’s near-term outlook. While complete predictability remains challenging, the market waves show some degree of predictability with discernible patterns in market behavior. By examining momentum indicators, several signals emerge that offer insights into the potential direction of the market in the short term.

1. The RSI (Relative Strength Index), with an RSI reading of 60 and falling from the peak, hints that bullish sentiment might be losing steam. When the RSI moves down from a high level, it often indicates weakening buying pressure, suggesting a potential slowdown in upward momentum.
2. PPO lines and histogram behavior are crucial for assessing market momentum. The PPO histogram has tested the zero line and may rebound and shift to a rise. This shift from previous bearish tendencies could signal the start of more sustained upward price movements.
3. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) may start their rise; if indicators such as the Advance-Decline Line (ADVL) or the McClellan Summation Index rise, this might suggest broadening market support and could precede an uptrend.

With these indicators in mind, while certain indicators suggest a potential shift towards more favorable market conditions, it is more likely that the index prices will continue to hover in the upper segment of the Keltner Channel. This indicates that while some recovery may be underway, significant upward movements may be restrained by ongoing resistance. Therefore, the likelihood of a significant breakthrough remains small.

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. The data in the table shows that the overall index fell by 0.97% over the last week.

The chart above shows the performance of various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens, Large caps, and Coins (NWSCo100). Ether has outperformed other segments with a gain of 27.55% over the last thirty days.

While the broader market was experiencing a sideways trend, different segments, and individual cryptocurrencies exhibited varied performance dynamics. Ether was leading, and indices NWWS30 and NWSBE were weakening, while Bitcoin and the Indices NWSET100, NWSCo100, and NWSL100 were lagging. Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, embodied by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. We draw insights into historical achievements and potential future trends by examining their performances over various timeframes.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 31 Months Ago: Digital assets showcased a notable outperformance against shares in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • Twelve months ago, the advantage for digital assets became even more pronounced, with digital assets outperforming shares by a margin of 83.2%. This stark difference highlights the substantial returns that digital assets have offered over traditional shares within this timeframe.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • Over the past 143 working days, the average quotient price, represented by a blue dashed curve, stands at 8.78, while the current spot price is 10.19. This is significantly higher than the long-term mean of 6.81.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices, over time, tend to revert to their historical average returns. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are currently highly valued compared to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved with the stock generated by buying one point of the respective index daily over the past twelve months.
  • The NWST1100 Crypto Index enjoyed a 118.80% appreciation relative to last year’s period. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock would have seen a 53.5% uplift compared to the index’s current price.
  • Contrasting with the crypto index, the DJW, representing global capital market shares, grew by 19.73% over the past year. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 10.1%.
  • Expectations are rife. Digital assets purchased over the preceding 12 months at an average price of 3,948 points seem poised to offer magnified returns compared to shares.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow. 

Indices Revision 5-31-2024

Based on the latest Biweekly revision, Notcoin and Coinbase Wrapped Staked ETH have improved their ranking and were added to the NWSL100 index. On the other hand, FLARE, Axelar, and eCash were removed from the NWSL100 index. Several new mid-cap assets, including Highstreet, Turbo, Bounce Governance Token, etc., have been added to the NWSM200 index. More information about the additions and deletions for other indices in the family is available in each index’s presentation.

Winning member

Congratulations to Notcoin (NOT) for achieving a significant milestone by being recognized as the winning member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most important leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view. 

Notcoin (NOT) Website: https://notco.in/

NOT Large-cap Non-Ethereum based Token is 88thin the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSTo100, NWSOT50

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade:  Poor, 15.2 (Average for Large-caps: 18.0)

Over the last week, the average market cap was $1,046.6 million, and the average daily volume was $829.4 million.