2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Apr-5

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The NWST1100 index dropped 5.74% from the previous week. Ribbon Finance (RBN), a large-cap Ethereum-based token, has biweekly made the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

Based on our previous analysis, where we predicted the NWST1100 index would likely test the support S1 level followed by a rapid recovery, we have conducted a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market. Our thorough review of various indicators has yielded a plethora of salient observations:

  1. The analysis of the NWST1100 chart shows that the index’s performance aligns with the outlook from the previous study. However, The NWST1100 index tested a crucial support level (S1). Then, it demonstrated a recovery, underscoring the market’s resilience and the perception of price dips not as deterrents but as potential buying opportunities.
  2. Market sentiment: The fall of the PPO lines contrasting with the rise of the histogram bars might suggest that while the downward price momentum is present, its pace could be slowing down, possibly signaling that the market might stabilize or reverse its direction soon. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) holding in neutral territory and beginning to climb again could imply that the market is in a state of correction rather than entering a bearish trend.
  3. We are shifting our focus to the Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the NWST1100 chart. A falling Advance-Decline Line (ADVL) and, similarly, a falling McClellan Summation Index, a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator that measures market breadth, hint at a firmly established downward momentum that might have been prevalent then.

Based on these indicators, a swift recovery after touching the S1 support level may indicate that the market sentiment could be shifting, with buyers stepping in at perceived lower price points.

According to the chart on the right, the A50R lines’ positions indicate a balanced market with a positive inclination. Specifically, lines are settled in the neutral zone but show an upward trend. This suggests that most cryptocurrencies are trading near their 50-day moving average, pointing to a cautiously optimistic market as it enters a potentially bullish phase. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average. 

*This breadth indicator is essential in measuring the internal strength or weakness of the underlying index. Looking at the chart on the right side, we can see the A50R lines for four different categories of digital assets:

  1. The top box shows the A50R lines for 100 Large-cap members of NWSL100.
  2. The middle box displays the A50R lines for 1100 members of NWST1100, which is the Total Index measuring the performance of significant crypto assets based on market capitalization.
  3. The third box shows the A50R lines for 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100.
  4. The bottom box represents the A50R lines for 100 Coins members of NWSCo100.

Outlook for this week

This report aims to provide insights into the cryptocurrency market’s near-term outlook. While complete predictability remains challenging, the market waves show some degree of predictability with discernible patterns in market behavior. By examining momentum indicators, several signals emerge that offer insights into the potential direction of the market in the short term.

  1. The RSI (Relative Strength Index), with an RSI reading near 50, typically signals a neutral market. However, if the RSI is trending upwards, this could suggest that bullish sentiment is starting to take hold, potentially signaling an incoming period of market growth.
  2. The behavior of the PPO lines and histogram are essential indicators of market momentum. A rising PPO histogram, especially if it’s close to or crossing the zero line, is often interpreted as a sign of increasing bullish momentum. This may signal a shift away from a bearish or corrective phase towards market growth.
  3. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) may halt their descent; if indicators such as the Advance-Decline Line (ADVL) or the McClellan Summation Index stop falling, this might suggest broadening market support and could precede overall market stability or an uptrend.

With these indicators in mind, the signals from the RSI and PPO can be critical to decision-making. Investors might view these technical signals and the context of the Bitcoin halving as a basis for adopting more assertive investment strategies, provided they are in line with their individual risk profiles and investment objectives. Given these factors, it is likely that the NWST1100 index could experience an upward movement, with fluctuations expected between the pivot point (P) and the critical resistance level (R1). There is a potential for the index to test and possibly break through the R1 level, which would confirm the bullish trend.

Performance of various groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens) 

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it can be seen that the overall index dropped 5.74% over the last week.

The chart above shows the performance of various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens, Large caps, and Coins (NWSCo100). Bitcoin has outperformed other segments with a gain of 8.00% over the last thirty days.

While the broader market was experiencing a range of trending, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibited varied performance dynamics. Bitcoin and the index NWWS30 were leading, while the Indices NWSET100, NWSCo100, and NWSL100 were weakening; Ether and NWSBE were improving. Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

 

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, offering insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

  • Historical Performance Comparison:
    • 29 Months Ago: Digital assets, represented by the NWST1100 index, were outperforming shares on capital markets, represented by the W1Dow index, with a record high quotient between the two indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
    • 12 Months Ago: a year ago, digital assets had a clear edge, outperforming shares by  74.0%. This performance data accentuates the heightened returns digital assets offered over shares in the specified duration.
  • Mean Reversion Opportunity:
    • The average quotient price over the past 143 working days is plotted as a blue dashed curve (8.00). The spot price is 10.60, higher than its long-run mean, hovering around 7.01.
    • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices, over time, tend to revert to their historical average returns. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are currently highly valued compared to historical trends.
  • Returns Comparison:
    • The chart also presents the returns achieved with the stock generated by buying one point of the respective index daily over the past twelve months.
    • The NWST1100 Crypto Index enjoyed a 112.97% appreciation relative to last year’s period. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock would have seen a 74.5% uplift compared to the index’s current price.
    • Contrasting with the crypto index, the DJW, representing global capital market shares, grew by 20.77% over the past year. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 12.0%.
    • Expectations are rife as we stand the confirmed bullish trend between digital assets and global capital market shares. Digital assets purchased over the preceding 12 months at an average price of 3,507 points seem poised to offer magnified returns compared to shares as we traverse this bullish phase.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow. 

Indices Revision 4-5-2024

Based on the latest Bi-weekly revision, Ribbon Finance, eCash, and Pendle have improved their ranking and were added to the NWSL100 index. On the other hand, ZEEBU, Compound, and Helium were removed from the NWSL100 index. Several new mid-cap assets have been added to the NWSM200 index, including DyDX, Venom, Ethena, etc. More information about the additions and deletions for other indices in the family is available in each index’s presentation.

Winning member

Congratulations to Ribbon Finance (RBN) for achieving a significant milestone by being recognized as the winning member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view. 

 

RBN

Ribbon Finance (RBN) Website: https://www.ribbon.finance/

RBN Large-cap Ethereum-based Token is 90th in the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSTo100, NWSET100

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade:  Poor, 12.5 (Average for Large-caps: 17.8)


Over the last week, the average market cap was $1,230.1 million, and the average daily volume was $9.7 million.

Ribbon Finance is a suite of DeFi protocols that help users access crypto-structured products. By combining derivatives, lending, and a proprietary on-chain options exchange (Aevo), Ribbon aims to be the one-stop solution for users who want to improve a portfolio’s risk-return profile.

 


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We are the new economy news hub. 2100NEWS is the professional index, data, and tools provider in the digital asset space, offering Crypto Market Intelligence, providing the perspective you can trust and equipping you with information edge you need to stay ahead. (Real-time data of token issuers and news, analysis and commentary from community.) We are very excited to contribute to the evolution of the industry and build an ecosystem around our offering (the institutional-grade data infrastructure required to enable institutional investments in digital assets). We want our contributions (Contents and Tools on 2100NEWS.com) to be useful for helping investors.


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