2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Mar-8

The NWST1100 index has soared 12.12% from the previous week. FLOKI (FLOKI), a large-cap Ethereum-based token, has made the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index biweekly.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

Based on our previous analysis, where we predicted the NWST1100 index would likely approach the Resistance R1 line, we have conducted a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market. Our thorough review of various indicators has yielded a plethora of salient observations:

1. The analysis of the NWST1100 chart shows that the index’s performance aligns with the bullish outlook from the previous study. However, it is essential to note the extreme volatility on Tuesday. The NWST1100 index’s encounter with the R1 resistance line, followed by a significant drop and a swift recovery, showcases the market’s volatility and resilience. This pattern indicates strong market sentiment, where declines are viewed not as deterrents but as opportunities. The index fully recovered the next day and then, with this momentum, broke through the R1 support area and continued to grow. The rally has been ongoing for a long time, and the notable 50% growth over the past 30 days, despite four negative closures, underscores a prolonged bullish phase. However, the increased market nervousness—especially when encountering new resistance levels—highlights investor caution regarding potential abrupt market adjustments.
2. Market sentiment: The rise of the PPO lines contrasts with the decline of the PPO histogram bars, indicating a possible deceleration in the market’s momentum. The RSI’s upward trajectory has been situated in overbought conditions, confirming robust buying pressure. Also, in the RSI chart, the consequences of the fall and rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday are visible, as it lost more than 10 points, fell to the edge of the oversold area, and began to grow again – what could be called a healthy correction.
3. We are shifting our focus to the Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the NWST1100 chart. A rising Advance-Decline Line (ADVL) suggests that more individual cryptocurrencies participate in the rally. Similarly, a rising McClellan Summation Index, a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator that measures market breadth, could indicate that the upward momentum is established and might be sustainable.

Based on these indicators, the cryptocurrency market navigated a period of strong growth tempered by caution. While the bullish trends were evident and participation was widespread, the contrasting signals from various indicators and the market’s reaction to resistance levels highlight the importance of vigilance.

According to the chart on the right, all four A50R lines were overbought, further confirming the market’s bullish sentiment but, like the RSI, caution about potential overextension. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average. 

*This breadth indicator is essential in measuring the internal strength or weakness of the underlying index. Looking at the chart on the right side, we can see the A50R lines for four different categories of digital assets:

1. The top box shows the A50R lines for 100 Large-cap members of NWSL100.
2. The middle box displays the A50R lines for 1100 members of NWST1100, which is the Total Index measuring the performance of significant crypto assets based on market capitalization.
3. The third box shows the A50R lines for 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100.
4. The bottom box represents the A50R lines for 100 Coins members of NWSCo100.

Outlook for this week

This report aims to provide insights into the cryptocurrency market’s near-term outlook. While complete predictability remains challenging, the market waves show some degree of predictability with discernible patterns in market behavior. By examining momentum indicators, several signals emerge that offer insights into the potential direction of the market in the short term.

1. The RSI (Relative Strength Index), with an RSI reading near 80, suggests the market is overbought, indicating intense buying pressure. However, such a high RSI also warns of possible market saturation, and it also raises the specter of a possible pullback or consolidation as participants might take profits, anticipating a near-term ceiling in price action.
2. The behavior of the PPO lines and histogram serves as a crucial barometer for market momentum. A descending histogram, particularly crossing below zero, would indicate waning bullish momentum, heralding a potential phase of consolidation or correction. Such signals are vital for investors to adjust their expectations and strategies, preparing for a shift from rapid growth to more stabilized or corrective market movements.
3. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) may cease their ascent. Stability or decline in Breadth indicators like the McClellan Summation Index would corroborate the view that the market’s expansion is losing steam and is often a precursor to broader market stabilization or decline. This contraction could imply that the market’s forward thrust is becoming more selective, with fewer assets driving the advance.

With these indicators in mind, the indicators point to potential saturation and a possible slowdown or consolidation phase. The upcoming Bitcoin halving event is a significant seasonal factor that traditionally bolsters market sentiment, potentially countering bearish pressures. This aspect adds a layer of complexity to market predictions, suggesting that despite bearish indicators, external events like the halving could provide substantial support to the market. Investors maintain a balanced perspective, considering both the potential for continued growth and the risk of rapid corrections in their strategic decisions. Given these diverse signals, the NWST1100 index will likely fluctuate between key resistance and support levels (R2 and R1). While there’s a chance it could test and perhaps surpass the R2 resistance, the confluence of signals underscores the need for vigilance against potential volatility or downturns.

Performance of various groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens) 

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it can be seen that the overall index has soared 12.12% over the last week.

The chart above shows the performance of various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens, Large caps, and Coins (NWSCo100). Despite Ethereum-based tokens receiving less attention than Bitcoin and perhaps Ether, the NWSET100 index, which represents Ethereum-based tokens, has outperformed other segments with a remarkable gain of 75.79% over the last thirty days.

While the broader market was experiencing a rally, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibited varied performance dynamics. Bitcoin and the index NWSET100 were leading, Ether and NWSBE were weakening, and the NWWS30 index was lagging. NWSCo100 and NWSL100 were improving. Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, offering insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 28 Months Ago: Digital assets, represented by the NWST1100 index, were outperforming shares on capital markets, represented by the W1Dow index, with a record high quotient between the two indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • 12 Months Ago: Fast-forwarding to a year back, digital assets had a clear edge, outperforming shares by 110.8%, highlighting the potential of cryptocurrencies as a high-reward investment avenue.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • The average quotient price over the past 143 working days is plotted as a blue dashed curve (7.13). Currently, the spot price is 11.10, which is higher than its long-run mean, hovering around 7.13.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices, over time, tend to revert to their historical average returns. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are currently highly valued compared to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved with the stock generated by buying one point of the respective index daily over the past twelve months.
  • The NWST1100 Crypto Index enjoyed a 139.72% appreciation relative to last year’s period. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock would have seen a 102.0% uplift compared to the index’s current price.
  • Contrasting with the crypto index, the DJW, representing global capital market shares, grew by 21.17% over the past year. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 12.9%.
  • Expectations are rife as we stand the confirmed bullish trend between digital assets and global capital market shares. Digital assets purchased over the preceding 12 months at an average price of 3234 points seem poised to offer magnified returns compared to shares as we traverse this bullish phase.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow. 

Indices Revision 3-8-2024

Based on the latest Bi-weekly revision, StarkNet, FLOKI, and Axelar have improved their ranking and were added to the NWSL100 index. On the other hand, Frax Share, Gas, and Astar were removed from the NWSL100 index. Several new mid-cap assets have been added to the NWSM200 index, including Pixels, Telcoin, Bone ShibaSwap, etc. More information about the additions and deletions for other indices in the family is available in each index’s presentation.

Winning member

Congratulations to Flare(FLR) for achieving a significant milestone by being recognized as the winning member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view. 

FLOKI (FLOKI) Website: https://floki.com/

FLOKI Large-cap Ethereum-based Token is 83rd in the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSTo100, NWSET100

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade:  Poor, 12.7 (Average for Large-caps: 17.9)

Over the last week, the average market cap was $2,074.5 million, and the average daily volume was $1,204.4 million.