The index for NWST1100 has soared 5.15% over the last week; Coins represented by the NWSCo100 index have shown the most favorable performance within the previous 30 days, with a gain of over 42%.
*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the graph shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth.
Based on our previous analysis, where we predicted that the market would likely continue its rally and potentially surpass its previous high of 4070 points, we have conducted a detailed examination of the NWST1100 index chart, which serves as a significant benchmark index and reveals a multitude of noteworthy insights:
- The NWST1100: The index has risen and surpassed its previous high.
- Market Sentiment: The PPO lines have ceased their descent, and a PPO histogram is approaching the zero line from below, suggesting an increase in bullish momentum. However, the RSI’s fluctuation below the oversold territory introduces uncertainty into the market’s immediate trajectory.
- Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart provide a more cautious perspective. A downtick in the Advance-Decline Line (ADVL) suggests that fewer individual cryptocurrencies are participating in the rally, which could be a sign of weakening market breadth. Similarly, a falling McClellan Summation Index, a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator that measures market breadth, could indicate that the upward momentum is not as strong as it could be. This divergence—where price indexes rise while breadth indicators fall—can often precede a period of consolidation.
* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA for:
- 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
- 1100 members of NWST1100
- 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
- 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)
Outlook for this week
This report analyzes the cryptocurrency market’s short-term outlook and aims to provide insights into its potential direction. Although predicting the market’s behavior is challenging, discernible patterns in market waves offer some predictability. By examining momentum indicators, we can identify several signals that shed light on the market’s possible direction in the short term.
- The market shows bullish trends that differ from those seen in the early months of the year, as highlighted by the patterns within the ellipses on the chart. This shift suggests a market dynamics and investor sentiment change, potentially leading to more sustained upward movements.
- The RSI (Relative Strength Index) with an RSI reading of 65 indicates the market is strong, nearing the overbought level, which typically begins at 70.
- The PPO lines may change the slope to an ascending, and the histogram may continue rising, suggesting increasing bullish momentum.
- Looking at the breadth indicators at the bottom of the NWST1100 chart. The McClellan Summation Index (as shown in the chart below) – a derivative of the McClellan Oscillator – may start rising.
Considering these momentum indicators, we anticipate a potentially bullish short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market. This forecast is based on the premise that the momentum and breadth of the market support an upward trend, and acknowledging the historical occurrence of a year-end Rally adds a seasonal aspect. This phenomenon, where market prices tend to rise towards the end of the year, could further bolster the bullish outlook. NWST1100 index will likely continue its rally and potentially end the year over 4200 points.
Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)
Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, the overall index NWST1100 has surged by 5.15% over the last week, indicating a strong rally in the broader cryptocurrency market. The chart below highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). A retrospective view over the last thirty days indicates that Coins represented by the NWSCo100 index have shown the most promising performance, with a gain of over 42%.
While the broader market is experiencing a rally, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit varied performance dynamics. Bitcoin Ether and certain indices like NWSBE and NWWS30 are lagging. In contrast, NWSCo100 and NWSL100 are leading. NWSET100 is improving. Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.
*RRG® charts show you the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. That with strong relative strength and momentum appears in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.
Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity
This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, offering insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.
Let’s break down the key observations and implications:
- Historical Performance Comparison:
- 25 Months Ago: Digital assets, represented by the NWST1100 index, were outperforming shares on capital markets, represented by the W1Dow index, with a record high quotient between the two indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
- 12 Months Ago: Fast-forwarding to a year back, digital assets had a clear edge, outperforming shares by 81.6%. This performance data accentuates the heightened returns digital assets offered over shares in the specified duration.
- Recent Shift in Performance:
- An analysis of the present year reveals a stark enhancement in the performance of digital assets. They have surpassed shares on global capital markets by a significant 77.9% margin. This performance data accentuates the heightened returns digital assets offered over shares in the specified duration.
- Mean Reversion Opportunity:
- The average quotient price over the past 143 working days is plotted as a blue dashed curve (5.98). Currently, this average sits below its long-run mean, hovering around 7.45. However, the spot price is 7.39.
- The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices, over time, tend to revert to their historical average returns. The current average quotient price at the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are currently valued compared to historical trends.
- Returns Comparison:
- The chart also presents the returns achieved with the stock generated by buying one point of the respective index daily over the past twelve months.
- The NWST1100 Crypto Index enjoyed a 109.93% appreciation relative to last year’s period. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock would have seen a 44.4% uplift compared to the index’s current price.
- Contrasting with the crypto index, the DJW, representing global capital market shares, grew by 18.78% over the past year. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 9.0%.
- Expectations are rife as we stand the confirmed bullish trend between digital assets and global capital market shares. Digital assets purchased over the preceding year at an average price of 2799 points seem poised to offer magnified returns compared to shares as we traverse this bullish phase.
*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.