2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Dec-15

The NWST1100 index has fallen by 3.12% from the previous week. Bonk(BONK), a Large-cap Non-Ethereum-Token, is biweekly making the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. 

Based on our previous analysis, where we predicted a possible correction of about ten percent, targeting the 25-day EMA as a support level where the market could stabilize, we have conducted a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market. Our thorough review of various indicators has yielded a plethora of salient observations:

1. The analysis of the NWST1100 chart suggests that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, with sideways movement as the market digests previous gains.
2. Market sentiment: The slight fall in the PPO and its descending histogram slope indicate a mild pullback in the market. This suggests a decrease in the momentum of price changes, which could be a sign of market hesitation or a temporary slowdown in trend. The RSI moving out of oversold territory and trending downwards can be interpreted as a market that is no longer in an extreme condition of being oversold but also showing signs of reduced buying momentum.
3. We are shifting our focus to the Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the NWST1100 chart. The McClellan Summation Index leveling off implies that supply and demand market forces are currently balanced. A balanced market often precedes a directional move, suggesting that neither bulls nor bears are in precise control.

Considering the balance of forces, the market might be at an inflection point, and the current conditions might be favorable for bullish developments.

According to the chart on the right, all four A50R lines have settled in the overbought territory. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average. The current condition suggests that a substantial portion (over 81%) of the cryptocurrency market trades above its 50-day EMA (at relatively high levels compared to their short-term moving averages). While traditionally, the overbought designation might spell caution, in this context, it may well be an expression of the market’s enduring strength and potential for continued upward movement.

*This breadth indicator is essential in measuring the internal strength or weakness of the underlying index. Looking at the chart on the right side, we can see the A50R lines for four different categories of digital assets:

1. The top box shows the A50R lines for 100 Large-cap members of NWSL100.
2. The middle box displays the A50R lines for 1100 members of NWST1100, which is the Total Index measuring the performance of significant crypto assets based on market capitalization.
3. The third box shows the A50R lines for 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100.
4. The bottom box represents the A50R lines for 100 Coins members of NWSCo100.

Outlook for this week

This report aims to provide insights into the cryptocurrency market’s near-term outlook. While complete predictability remains challenging, the market waves show some degree of predictability with discernible patterns in market behavior. By examining momentum indicators, several signals emerge that offer insights into the potential direction of the market in the short term.

1. The market shows bullish trends that differ from those seen in the early months of the year, as highlighted by the patterns within the ellipses on the chart. This shift suggests a market dynamics and investor sentiment change, potentially leading to more sustained upward movements.
2. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) With an RSI reading of 62, the market is indicated to be strong, nearing the overbought level, which typically begins at 70.
3. The PPO lines and histogram may change the slope to an ascending, suggesting increasing bullish momentum.
4. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) may start to rise. The potential rise in Breadth indicators, notably the McClellan Summation Index, hints at a widening participation in the market rally. This broadening participation is a positive sign, indicating a healthier, more inclusive rally.

Considering these momentum indicators, we anticipate a potentially bullish short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market. This forecast is based on the premise that the momentum and breadth of the market support an upward trend, and acknowledging the historical occurrence of a year-end “Christmas Rally” adds a seasonal aspect. This phenomenon, where market prices tend to rise towards the end of the year, could further bolster the bullish outlook. NWST1100 index will likely continue its rally and potentially surpass its previous high of 4070 points.

Performance of various groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens) 

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it can be seen that the overall index has fallen by 3.12% over the last week, indicating a modest pullback in the broader cryptocurrency market.

The chart above shows the performance of various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices. These indices represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens, Large caps, and Coins (NWSCo100). A retrospective view over the last thirty days indicates that Coins represented by the NWSCo100 index have shown the most promising performance, with a gain of over 17%.

While the broader market was experiencing a consolidation, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibited varied performance dynamics. Bitcoin shows weakening momentum. Certain indices like NWSBE, NWSET100, NWS30, and Ether show lagging momentum; in contrast, NWSCo100 and NWSL100 are leading the way, indicating leading momentum. Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show you the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. That with strong relative strength and momentum appears in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, offering insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 25 Months Ago: Digital assets, represented by the NWST1100 index, were outperforming shares on capital markets, represented by the W1Dow index, with a record high quotient between the two indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • 12 Months Ago: Fast-forwarding to a year back, digital assets had a clear edge, outperforming shares by 72.9%. This performance data accentuates the heightened returns digital assets offered over shares in the specified duration.
• Recent Shift in Performance:
  • An analysis of the present year reveals a stark enhancement in the performance of digital assets. They have surpassed shares on global capital markets by a significant 76.9% margin. This performance data accentuates the heightened returns digital assets offered over shares in the specified duration.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • The average quotient price over the past 143 working days is plotted as a blue dashed curve (5.88). Currently, this average sits below its long-run mean, hovering around 7.46. However, the spot price is 7.22.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices, over time, tend to revert to their historical average returns. The current average quotient price below the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are undervalued compared to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved with the stock generated by buying one point of the respective index daily over the past twelve months.
  • The NWST1100 Crypto Index enjoyed a 92.01% appreciation relative to last year’s period. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock would have seen a 40.8% uplift compared to the index’s current price.
  • Contrasting with the crypto index, the DJW, representing global capital market shares, grew by 16.40% over the past year. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 8.8%.
  • Expectations are rife as we stand the confirmed bullish trend between digital assets and global capital market shares. Digital assets purchased over the preceding year at an average price of 2760 points seem poised to offer magnified returns compared to shares as we traverse this bullish phase.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow. 

Indices Revision 12-15-2023

Based on the latest Bi-weekly revision, Bonk, WMIX, Kucoin Token, Helium, aelf, and UNUS SED LEO have improved their ranking and were added to the NWSL100 index. On the other hand, Blur, Qtum, 0x Protocol, Loopring, JUST, and yearn.finance were removed from the NWSL100 index. Several new mid-cap assets have been added to the NWSM200 index, including SATS, Jifto Labs, Creditcoin, etc. More information about the additions and deletions for other indices in the family is available in each index’s presentation.

Winning member

Congratulations to Bonk (BONK) for achieving a significant milestone by being recognized as the winning member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view. 

Bonk (BONK) Website: https://bonkcoin.com/

BONK Large-cap Non-Ethereum-based Token is 72nd in the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSTo100, NWSOT50

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade:  Poor, 13.8 (Average for Large-caps: 18)

Over the last week, the average market cap was $889.4 million, and the average daily volume was $374.5 million.