2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Dec-1

The NWST1100 index has risen by 1.78% from the previous week. Bitensor (TAO), a Large-cap Coin, is biweekly making the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. 

Based on our previous analysis, where we predicted that the market might stay in a consolidation phase within a specific range and remain above a critical support level, a 25-day EMA, we have conducted a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market. Our thorough review of various indicators has yielded a plethora of salient observations:

1. The analysis of the NWST1100 chart suggests that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, with sideways movement as the market digests previous gains and decides on the next direction. However, the upward pressure coupled with this might indicate an underlying bullish sentiment.
2. Market sentiment: The Price Performance Oscillator’s (PPO) divergence from the index prices since late October points to a market that was cooling off, possibly due to profit-taking by some participants. Despite this, the index price continued to climb, which is a bullish sign. The volume-by-price indicator on the left shows a predominance of buyers, suggesting a strong buying interest at those price levels, depicted by the ochre color on the top. The switch of the PPO histogram to growth could signal that the buyers are gaining strength. The analogy to long jumpers preparing for a leap suggests that the market could be gearing up for a bullish run. The upward direction change in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) could be interpreted as a sign of strengthening momentum and a possible precursor to an upward price trend.
3. We are shifting our focus to the Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the NWST1100 chart, signifying more cryptocurrencies are advancing than declining. The McClellan Summation Index has leveled off, suggesting that the market forces are in equilibrium, which could precede a directional move.

Considering the balance of forces and the positive signs from the volume-by-price indicator and the PPO histogram, the market might be at an inflection point, and the current conditions might be favorable for bullish developments.

According to the chart on the right, all four A50R lines have settled in the overbought territory. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average. The current condition suggests that a substantial portion (over 85%) of the cryptocurrency market trades above its 50-day EMA (at relatively high levels compared to their short-term moving averages). While traditionally, the overbought designation might spell caution, in this context, it may well be an expression of the market’s enduring strength and potential for continued upward movement.

*This breadth indicator is essential in measuring the internal strength or weakness of the underlying index. Looking at the chart on the right side, we can see the A50R lines for four different categories of digital assets:

1. The top box shows the A50R lines for 100 Large-cap members of NWSL100.
2. The middle box displays the A50R lines for 1100 members of NWST1100, which is the Total Index measuring the performance of significant crypto assets based on market capitalization.
3. The third box shows the A50R lines for 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100.
4. The bottom box represents the A50R lines for 100 Coins members of NWSCo100.

Outlook for this week

This report aims to provide insights into the cryptocurrency market’s near-term outlook. While complete predictability remains challenging, the market waves show some degree of predictability with discernible patterns in market behavior. By examining momentum indicators, several signals emerge that offer insights into the potential direction of the market in the short term.

1. The crypto market may follow a similar pattern to those observed in February and March, as marked by ellipses on the provided chart.
2. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) With an RSI reading of 66, the market is indicated to be strong, nearing the overbought level, which typically begins at 70. While this can signal bullish momentum, it raises caution for a possible pullback if the market becomes overextended.
3. The PPO lines may continue on an ascending trajectory, coupled with a rising histogram, suggesting increasing bullish momentum. A rising PPO line can be a precursor to a market upswing, indicating that the speed of the price ascent is rising.
4. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) point toward a market rise. A McClellan Summation Index, derived from the McClellan Oscillator, may start rising.

Considering these momentum indicators, we anticipate a potentially bullish short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market. This forecast is based on the premise that the momentum and breadth of the market support a continued upward trend. NWST1100 index will likely continue its rally, testing higher resistance levels such as R2.

Performance of various groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens) 

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it can be seen that the overall index has risen by 1.78% over the last week, indicating a modest increase in the broader cryptocurrency market.

The chart above shows the performance of various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices. These indices represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens, Large caps, and Coins (NWSCo100). Ether has shown a significant gain of 23.74% over the last thirty days, which is noteworthy. While the broader market was experiencing a consolidation, different segments, and individual cryptocurrencies exhibited varied performance dynamics. Certain indices like NWSC100, NWSET100, and NWSL100 show weakening momentum.

In contrast, Bitcoin, NWSBE, and NWWS30 are improving, indicating increasing momentum. This could mean that these segments or Bitcoin are starting to gather strength and could be poised for a potential breakout. Ether is leading the way. Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show you the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. That with strong relative strength and momentum appears in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, offering insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 25 Months Ago: Digital assets, represented by the NWST1100 index, were outperforming shares on capital markets, represented by the W1Dow index, with a record high quotient between the two indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • 12 Months Ago: Fast-forwarding to a year back, digital assets had a clear edge, outperforming shares by 54.9%. This performance data accentuates the heightened returns digital assets offered over shares in the specified duration.
• Recent Shift in Performance:
  • An analysis of the present year reveals a stark enhancement in the performance of digital assets. They have surpassed shares on global capital markets by a significant 64.1% margin. This performance data accentuates the heightened returns digital assets offered over shares in the specified duration.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • The average quotient price over the past 143 working days is plotted as a blue dashed curve (5.66). Currently, this average sits below its long-run mean, hovering around 7.46. Such a deviation underscores a potential opportunity to invest in digital assets, leveraging the mean reversion theory.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices, over time, tend to revert to their historical average returns. The current average quotient price below the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are undervalued compared to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved with the stock generated by buying one point of the respective index daily over the past twelve months.
  • The NWST1100 Crypto Index enjoyed a 70.18% appreciation relative to last year’s period. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock would have seen a 31.7% uplift compared to the index’s current price.
  • Contrasting with the crypto index, the DJW, representing global capital market shares, grew by 9.35% over the past year. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 6.4%.
  • Expectations are rife as we stand the confirmed bullish trend between digital assets and global capital market shares. Digital assets purchased over the preceding year at an average price of 2690 points seem poised to offer magnified returns compared to shares as we traverse this bullish phase.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow. 

Indices Revision 12-1-2023

Based on the latest Bi-weekly revision, Gas, bitensor, Illuvium, Blur, and Oasis Protocol have improved their ranking and were added to the NWSL100 index. On the other hand, Mask Network, 1inch, Celo, SafePal, and Ethereum Name Service were removed from the NWSL100 index. Several new mid-cap assets have been added to the NWSM200 index, including Pyth Network, Superverse, Bonk, etc. More information about the additions and deletions for other indices in the family is available in each index’s presentation.

Winning member

Congratulations to Bitensor (TAO) for achieving a significant milestone by being recognized as the winning member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index. Let’s delve into the details of its performance:

1. Performance in the Last Ten Weeks: Bitensor (TAO) has displayed a growth trajectory that resonated with the 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100) performance. However, a significant bullish surge in November set TAO apart, reinforcing its independent market dynamics. The violet area chart highlights TAO’s remarkable achievement, outpacing the NWSL100 index by 314%. This difference in performance underscores TAO’s resilience and potential in the market.
2. TAO vs. NWSL100: A comparison of TAO’s performance with the NWSL100 index reveals interesting insights. The green area graph represents TAO’s performance, while the orange area graph illustrates the index’s performance. An overall strong correlation, evidenced by a Pearson’s correlation coefficient of  0.88, implies that while TAO follows the index trends, it also has independent factors influencing its performance.
3. Price Changes: Because of the tendency to move in tandem with NWSL100, TAO has been a reliable representative of the index regarding price changes, suggesting that TAO’s price movements have followed the broader market trends represented by NWSL100.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view. 

Bittensor (TAO) Website: https://bittensor.com/

TAO Large-cap Coin is 78th in the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSCo100

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade:  Poor, 11.7 (Average for Large-caps: 18.2)

Over the last week, the average market cap was $1,197.8 million, and the average daily volume was $8.7 million.

*The chart below shows the TAO compared to NWSL100 at the top, the box in the middle of the chart shows the original price, and at the bottom, we see NWSL100 and the correlation between TAO and NWSL100. The purpose of this report is to provide insights into the near-term outlook of the cryptocurrency market. Although complete predictability is challenging, the market waves exhibit some degree of predictability with discernible patterns in market behavior. By examining momentum indicators, several signals emerge that offer insights into the potential direction of the market in the short term.