2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Nov-17

The NWST1100 index has fallen by 2.55% from the previous week. ORDI (ORDI),  a Large-cap Non-Ethereum-based Token, is biweekly making the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. 

Based on our previous analysis, where we predicted that the market would consolidate and stay above level R1, we have conducted a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market. Our thorough review of various indicators has yielded a plethora of salient observations:

1. The NWST1100 index’s trajectory shows a consolidation phase following notable gains.
2. Market sentiment suggests caution: The PPO lines have declined. The PPO histogram crossed the zero line and has a downward slope, which can be a precursor to a potential trend reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) trajectory has changed direction to downward.
3. We are shifting our focus to the Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the NWST1100 chart. The Advance-Decline Line (ADVL) flattened out. The McClellan Summation Index has started declining.

Considering

I have reviewed various indicators on the NWST1100 chart, considered a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market. Based on my observation, the chart is currently in a consolidation phase after significant gains. However, market sentiment suggests caution as the PPO lines have declined, and the PPO histogram has a downward slope, indicating a potential trend reversal. Additionally, the RSI trajectory has changed direction to downward. As such, we are now focusing on the Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart. The Advance-Decline Line (ADVL) has flattened out, and the McClellan Summation Index has started declining.

Considering these insights, it is crucial to note that while a significant part of the market is experiencing bullish sentiment, it raises caution that could lead to a retraction as the market seeks to balance out.

According to the chart on the right, all four A50R lines have settled in the overbought territory. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average. The current condition suggests that a substantial portion (over 85%) of the cryptocurrency market trades above its 50-day EMA (at relatively high levels compared to their short-term moving averages). Yet, being in this zone doesn’t necessarily mean the market will drop, but it signals the potential for a retraction as the market attempts to find equilibrium.

*This breadth indicator is essential in measuring the internal strength or weakness of the underlying index. Looking at the chart on the right side, we can see the A50R lines for four different categories of digital assets:

1. The top box shows the A50R lines for 100 Large-cap members of NWSL100.
2. The middle box displays the A50R lines for 1100 members of NWST1100, which is the Total Index measuring the performance of significant crypto assets based on market capitalization.
3. The third box shows the A50R lines for 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100.
4. The bottom box represents the A50R lines for 100 Coins members of NWSCo100.

Outlook for this week

This report aims to provide insights into the cryptocurrency market’s near-term outlook. While complete predictability remains challenging, the market waves show some degree of predictability with discernible patterns in market behavior. By examining momentum indicators, several signals emerge that offer insights into the potential direction of the market in the short term.

1. The crypto market may follow a similar pattern to those observed in February and March, as marked by ellipses on the provided chart.
2. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has exited overbought conditions, with a 64 reading suggesting a cooling market.
3. The PPO lines may continue on a descending trajectory, but there is a possibility that the falling histogram may change direction and move upward. This could indicate a potential reversal or slowing down of downward momentum.
4. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) point toward market consolidation or decline. A descending McClellan Summation Index, derived from the McClellan Oscillator, underlines the possibility of range trending.
5. As the seasonal pattern associated with Thanksgiving diminishes this week, other indicators will influence the market’s consolidation.

Considering the consolidation signals from the technical indicators, a cautious perspective suggests that the market may enter a consolidation phase within a specific range. With the fading of Thanksgiving seasonal trends, a market downturn is possible. However, it’s important to note that the market’s stability will likely remain above a critical support level, previously a resistance level (R1). This support level may lay the groundwork for a potential rebound, as historically observed during the robust December period, often accompanied by a Christmas rally.

Performance of various groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens) 

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, the overall index NWST1100 has fallen by 2.55% over the last week, indicating a modest retracement in the broader cryptocurrency market.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The chart below highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). A retrospective view over the last thirty days indicates that Coins represented by the NWSCo100 index have shown the most promising performance, with a gain of 45.81%. While the broader market is experiencing a consolidation, different segments, and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit varied performance dynamics. Ether and certain indices like NWSC100, NWSET100, and NWSL100 are currently leading in momentum, pointing to their strong market performance. In contrast, Bitcoin, NWSBE, and NWWS30 are lagging, showing signs of decreasing momentum. Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show you the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. That with strong relative strength and momentum appears in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

 

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, offering insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 24 Months Ago: Digital assets, represented by the NWST1100 index, were outperforming shares on capital markets, represented by the W1Dow index, with a record high quotient between the two indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • 12 Months Ago: Fast-forwarding to a year back, digital assets had a clear edge, outperforming shares by 57.1%. This performance data accentuates the heightened returns digital assets offered over shares in the specified duration.
• Recent Shift in Performance:
  • An analysis of the present year reveals a stark enhancement in the performance of digital assets. They have surpassed shares on global capital markets by a significant 58.8% margin. This performance data accentuates the heightened returns digital assets offered over shares in the specified duration.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • The average quotient price over the past 143 working days is plotted as a blue dashed curve (5.54). Currently, this average sits below its long-run mean, hovering around 7.49. Such a deviation underscores a potential opportunity to invest in digital assets, leveraging the mean reversion theory.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices, over time, tend to revert to their historical average returns. The current average quotient price below the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are currently undervalued compared to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved with the stock generated by buying one point of the respective index daily over the past twelve months.
  • The NWST1100 Crypto Index enjoyed a 67.86% appreciation relative to last year’s period. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock would have seen a 28.9% uplift compared to the index’s current price.
  • Contrasting with the crypto index, the DJW, representing global capital market shares, grew by 11.26% over the past year. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 4.9%.
  • Expectations are rife as we stand at the confirmed bullish trend between digital assets and global capital market shares. Digital assets purchased over the preceding year at an average price of 2635 points seem poised to offer magnified returns compared to shares as we traverse this bullish phase.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow. 

Indices Revision 11-17-2023

Based on the latest Bi-weekly revision, dYdX, Celestia, FTX Token, Ordinals, and 0x Protocol have improved their ranking and were added to the NWSL100 index. On the other hand, APENFT, UNUS SED LEDO, Enjin Coin, GateToken, and WhiteBIT Coin were removed from the NWSL100 index. Several new mid-cap assets have been added to the NWSM200 index, including Memecoin, Axelar, Kujira, etc. More information about the additions and deletions for other indices in the family is available in each index’s presentation.

 

Winning member

Congratulations to ORDI (ORDI) for achieving a significant milestone by being recognized as the winning member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index. Let’s delve into the details of its performance:

1. Performance in the Last Ten Weeks: ORDI (ORDI) has displayed a growth trajectory that resonated with the 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100) performance. However, a significant bullish surge in early November set ORDI apart, reinforcing its independent market dynamics. The violet area chart highlights ORDI’s remarkable achievement, outpacing the NWSL100 index by 366%. This difference in performance underscores ORDI’s resilience and potential in the market.
2. ORDI vs. NWSL100: A comparison of JST’s performance with the NWSL100 index reveals interesting insights. The green area graph represents ORDI’s performance, while the orange area graph illustrates the index’s performance. An overall strong correlation, evidenced by a Pearson’s correlation coefficient of  0.89, implies that while ORDI follows the index trends, it also has independent factors influencing its performance.
3. Convergence in Price Changes: Because of the tendency to move in tandem with NWSL100, ORDI has been a reliable representative of the index regarding price changes. This convergence suggests that ORDI’s price movements have followed the broader market trends represented by NWSL100.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view. 

 

ORDI (ORDI) Website: https://ordinals.com/

 

ORDI Large-cap Non-Ethereum-based Token is 79th in the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSTo100, NWSOT50

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade:  Poor, 16.2 (Average for Large-caps: 18.5)

---

Over the last week, the average market cap was $463.6 million, and the average daily volume was $270.8 million.

*The chart below shows the ORDI compared to NWSL100 at the top, the box in the middle of the chart shows the original price, and at the bottom, we see NWSL100 and the correlation between ORDI and NWSL100.