2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Sep-22

The NWST1100 index has decreased 0.22% from the previous week. Radix (XRD), a Large-cap Coin, is biweekly making the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is difficult to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. 

According to the previous report, it was predicted that the cryptocurrency market would rise to the target being the resistance level represented by the pivot point labeled as “P.” Analyzing the NWST1100 chart, a critical benchmark index, by examining various indicators to gain insights into the prevailing market sentiment and breadth has revealed several key points:

1. Observing the NWST1100 index price movement, we note that the index has moved over the 25-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but has experienced a pullback since Wednesday. Moving over the 25-day EMA can be a positive sign, indicating potential upward momentum. However, the subsequent pullback suggests that the market may have encountered resistance at this level.
2. Market sentiment: Market sentiment analysis reveals several noteworthy points. The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) lines have slightly risen, indicating that the market might be consolidating or taking a breather after recent moves. A change in the direction of the PPO histogram implies a potential slowdown in the momentum of price changes. The RSI changing direction to fall suggests that there might be some downward pressure or profit-taking in the market.
3. We are shifting our focus to the Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the NWST1100 chart. The choppy Advance-Decline Line (ADVL), which reflects the difference between the number of advancing and declining cryptocurrencies, where it has started rising again, could indicate a shift in market breadth. A rising ADVL suggests there may be more advancing cryptocurrencies than declining ones, which could impact overall market sentiment. The rising McClellan Summation Index indicates that there might be some underlying positive developments in the market.

Considering these insights, it’s clear that while there has been a pullback in the market after moving over the 25-day EMA, there are some positive signs, such as the rising ADVL and McClellan Summation Index. These indicators point toward improving market breadth and positive sentiment.

The chart on the right shows that all four A50R lines are currently oversold. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average. The current oversold condition suggests that a substantial portion (over 75%) of the cryptocurrency market is trading below its 50-day EMA (at relatively low levels compared to their short-term moving averages). Despite oversold, the A50R lines have risen, suggesting the market may have gained momentum. This could potentially lead to a reversal of the oversold condition, making it an attractive opportunity for bargain hunters. It could be an excellent time for those who believe in the overall positive sentiment in the market, especially if there are indications of upward momentum.

*This breadth indicator is essential in measuring the internal strength or weakness of the underlying index. Looking at the chart on the right side, we can see the A50R lines for four different categories of digital assets:

1. The top box shows the A50R lines for 100 Large-cap members of NWSL100.
2. The middle box displays the A50R lines for 1100 members of NWST1100, which is the Total Index measuring the performance of significant crypto assets based on market capitalization.
3. The third box shows the A50R lines for 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100.
4. The bottom box represents the A50R lines for 100 Coins members of NWSCo100.

Outlook for this week

This report aims to provide insights into the cryptocurrency market’s near-term outlook. While complete predictability remains challenging, the market waves show some degree of predictability with discernible patterns in market behavior. By examining momentum indicators, several signals emerge that offer insights into the potential direction of the market in the short term.

1. Recently, the market has experienced a consolidation after a rebound. Such consolidation often serves as a pause after significant price movements and can precede further market action.
2. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) currently stands at 47, indicating a moderate level of selling pressure in the market. RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, and an RSI reading of 47 suggests a balanced equilibrium between buying and selling forces.
3. The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) histogram appears to be potentially turning upward. A rising PPO histogram can signal a strengthening momentum, suggesting the possibility of an evolving trend. The PPO, a momentum indicator tracking the percentage difference between two moving averages, may continue its ascent.
4. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) may continue rising. The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term market breadth indicator relying on the McClellan Oscillator. The oscillator bars above zero suggest a bullish momentum, indicating that the market breadth may favor increasing assets.

Considering this analysis, regarding the timing near the end of the third quarter, under different circumstances, there might have been a swift test of support (S1). However, the influence of large investors on market movements and the dynamics associated with quarter-end are expected to contribute to a move toward the pivot point labeled as “P” in the upcoming week.

Performance of various groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens) 

Investors and traders often use historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, the overall index NWST1100 has decreased by 0.22% over the last week, indicating a slightly negative performance in the broader cryptocurrency market. The chart below highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). A retrospective view over the last thirty days indicates that Tokens represented by the NWSET100 index have shown the most promising performance, with a decrease of 0.36%.

 

 

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

These comparisons provide insights into the relative performance of digital assets and traditional stocks over different time periods.

The comparison highlights the performance differences between digital assets (coins, tokens) and traditional stocks; the NWST1100 represents digital assets, while the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index represents traditional stocks. Here are the key observations:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 22 Months Ago: Digital assets, represented by the NWST1100 index, were outperforming traditional stocks, represented by the W1Dow index, with a record high quotient between the two indexes. This suggests that investing in digital assets was more profitable during that period compared to traditional stocks.
  • 12 Months Ago: However, over the past 12 months, digital assets have lagged behind traditional stocks by 7.2%. This indicates that conventional stocks have delivered better returns than digital assets during this specific time frame.
• Recent Shift in Performance:
  • In the current year, there has been a noticeable shift in performance, with digital assets outperforming traditional stocks by a significant margin of 21.3%. This suggests a potential resurgence in the performance of digital assets and a change in investor sentiment toward the cryptocurrency market.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • The chart includes a blue dashed curve representing the average quotient price over 143 working days. This average is lower than the long-run mean at 7.80. This observation hints at a potential buying opportunity for digital assets based on the mean reversion theory.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices, over time, tend to revert to their historical average returns. The current average quotient prices below the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are currently undervalued compared to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved with the stock price generated by buying one point of the respective index daily over the past twelve months.
  • The NWST1100 Crypto Index experienced a 6.05% gain compared to a year ago. However, the purchased stock of the index achieved a 2.6% decrease compared to the index’s current price.
  • In contrast, the DJW Capital Index (traditional stocks) experienced a 10.12% gain compared to a year ago. It achieved a 3.4% gain on the purchased stock of the index based on daily purchases.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow. 

Indices Revision 9-22-2023

Based on the latest Bi-weekly revision, no new constituent was added to or removed from the NWSL100 index. Several new mid-cap assets have been added to the NWSM200 index, including UnlimitedIP, Tellor, Flamingo, etc. More information about the additions and deletions for other indices in the family is available in each index’s presentation.

 

Winning member

Congratulations to Radix (XRD) for achieving a remarkable milestone as the winning member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index. Let’s delve into the details of its performance:

1. Outperformance in the Last Ten Weeks: Radix (XRD) has displayed equal growth as the 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100). Since mid-August, XRD has outperformed the NWSL100 index by an impressive 25%, a trend depicted by the violet area chart.
2. XRD vs. NWSL100: A comparison of XRD’s performance with the NWSL100 index reveals interesting insights. The green area graph represents XRD’s performance, while the orange area graph illustrates the index’s performance. Notably, there has been a weak correlation between XRD and NWSL100, with a Pearson’s correlation coefficient of 0.15. XRD has moved in the same direction as the index about 70% of the time.
3. Divergence in Price Changes: Despite the tendency to move in tandem with NWSL100 most of the time, XRD has not been a reliable representative of the index regarding price changes. This suggests that XRD’s price movements have not fully aligned with the broader market represented by NWSL100. This divergence indicates that XRD’s price dynamics have been influenced by other factors or unique market conditions, setting it apart from the general trends observed in the market.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view. 

 

Radix (XRD) Website: https://www.radixdlt.com/

 

XRD Large-cap Coin is 65th in the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSCo100

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade:  Poor, 14 (Average for Large-caps: 18.5)

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Over the last week, the average market cap was $585.8 million, and the average daily volume was $2.1 million.

*The chart below shows the XRD compared to NWSL100 at the top, the box in the middle of the chart shows the original price, and at the bottom, we see NWSL100 and the correlation between XRD and NWSL100.