2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Jun-16

The NWST1100 index has declined 5.24% from the previous week. KuCoin Token (KCS), Large-cap Ethereum-based Token, is biweekly making the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is difficult to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. 

Cryptocurrency Market Consolidates as Bullish Momentum Gains. As predicted in the previous report, the cryptocurrency market has indeed been consolidating around the support level S2. A closer analysis of the NWST1100 chart, a benchmark index, reveals interesting observations regarding market trends. The market’s indecisiveness and lack of a clear direction are evident through the price action, which initially rebounded, then declined to new lows, and subsequently rebounded once again.

Examining the momentum indicators at the top of the chart provides further insights. The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) lines, which measure the difference between two moving averages, have changed direction and are now rising. This indicates a growing upward momentum in the market, and the PPO histogram, which represents the difference between the PPO lines and a signal line, has also started to rise. This suggests an increasing bullish sentiment among market participants. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of the market’s strength and overbought/oversold conditions, has changed direction and is now on the rise. This indicates improving market sentiment and potential buying pressure. Shifting focus to the Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart, two notable observations emerge. Firstly, the Advance-Decline Line (ADVL), which measures the difference between advancing and declining cryptocurrencies, has started rising, implying that more cryptocurrencies are experiencing positive price movements, potentially indicating a broad-based recovery. Secondly, the McClellan Summation Index, which measures the rate of change of the ADVL, has also seen a slight increase, supporting the notion of a potential market upswing.

Considering these observations, it becomes evident that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a state of uncertainty and consolidation. However, the changing momentum indicators, including the rising PPO lines, histogram, and RSI, alongside the slight improvement in market breadth indicated by the rising ADVL and McClellan Summation Index, point towards a potential shift in sentiment towards a more bullish outlook.

The chart on the right shows that all four A50R lines are currently oversold. However, there are early indications of recovery as these lines have begun to rise. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average.

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

Outlook for this week

The cryptocurrency market waves show some degree of predictability, with discernible patterns in market behavior, although complete predictability remains challenging. By examining the momentum indicators, several signals emerge that provide insights into the near future. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) currently stands at 43, indicating a neutral sentiment prevailing in the market. Furthermore, suppose the PPO histogram continues its current direction, and the PPO lines maintain their trajectory. In that case, it suggests a continuation of the current momentum, which indicates a potential upward movement in prices. Additionally, observing the Breadth indicators at the bottom of the NWST1100 chart sheds further light. If these indicators persist in their current direction, it implies continuing the prevailing market trend. This reinforces the notion of a slightly bullish sentiment permeating the market. Considering these signals suggests a market environment characterized by slightly bullish momentum gains as we approach the end of the year’s first half. Based on this setup, a move is likely up to a 143-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) by the end of June, indicating a potential upward price movement in the near term.

Performance of various groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens) 

After analyzing the data in the table, the overall index NWST1100 has plunged by 5.53% over the past week. The chart below highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which measure the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Looking back over the last thirty days, Bitcoin has had the most favorable performance, decreasing by only 1.17%. Conversely, Ethereum-based tokens, represented by the NWSET100 index, have had the poorest performance. The actions taken by the SEC against significant crypto exchanges have significantly impacted the performance of Ethereum-based tokens, as shown in the chart below.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

These comparisons provide insights into the relative performance of digital assets and traditional stocks over different time periods.

The provided comparison highlights the performance differences between digital assets (coins, tokens) and traditional stocks, represented by the NWST1100 and Dow Jones Global W1Dow indexes. Here are the key observations from the information you provided:

• Performance Comparison: 19 months ago, digital assets were performing better than traditional stocks, with a record high quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. However, over the past 12 months, traditional stocks have outperformed digital assets by 3.7%.
• Recent Shift: There has been a recent shift in performance in the current year, with the NWST1100 index outperforming the W1Dow index by 18.2%. This shift potentially indicates a resurgence in the performance of digital assets.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity: The blue dashed curve on the chart represents the average quotient price over 143 working days, which has been lower than the long-run mean at 8.39. This suggests that digital assets may present an opportunity for buying at lower prices based on the theory of Mean reversion. Mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices and historical returns tend to revert to their long-run means over time.
• Annual Average Returns: The bottom two boxes on the chart depict the average yearly returns of buying one point of the respective indices daily (blue curves). The Crypto Index NWST1100 experienced a 12.4% increase compared to a year ago. The DJW capital index experienced a 16.2% gain compared to a year ago and achieved a 9.3% return on the purchased stock based on buying one point daily.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow. 

Indices Revision 6-16-2023

Based on the latest Bi-weekly revision, KuCoin Token, Chia Network, and XinFin have improved their ranking and were added to the NWSL100 index; they were previously included in the NWSM200 index. On the other hand, Compound, Fetch, and ICON were removed from the NWSL100 index. Several new mid-cap assets have been added to the indices, including Aleph Zero, Cryptonex, FINSCHIA, etc. More information about the additions and deletions for other indices in the family is available in each index’s presentation.

Winning member

Congratulations to KuCoin Token (KCS) for being the winning member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant rank jump. We gauged KuCoin Token (KCS)  Large-cap Ethereum-based Token with 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100) to make an appropriate peer comparison. On average (violet area chart), the relationship between NWSL100  and KCS has shown that KCS has outperformed NWSL100 by 9% over the previous ten weeks. First, compare the KCS green area graph with the index (orange area graph) while observing the correlation graph. The correlation graph explains the strong correlation (Pearson’s correlation coefficient = 0.91). It was moving in the same direction as the NWSL100; however, it has been a good representative of the NWSL100 index regarding price changes.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view. 

KuCoin Token (KCS) Website: https://www.kucoin.com/

KCS Large-cap Ethereum-based Token is 87th in the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSTo100, NWSET100

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade:  Poor, 9.4 (Average for Large-caps: 18.5)

Over the last week, the average market cap was $629.9 million, and the average daily volume was $3.0 million.

*The chart below shows the KCS compared to NWSL100 at the top, the box in the middle of the chart shows the original price, and at the bottom, we see NWSL100 and the correlation between  KCS and NWSL100.