2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT May-19

The NWST1100 index has risen by  0.8% over the previous week. Kava, Large-cap Non-Ethereum-based Token, is a member of the NWSL100 crypto index, making the most significant rank jump over the last two weeks.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is difficult to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. 

As anticipated in the previous report, there was likely a rebound in the cryptocurrency markets. Analyzing the NWST1100 chart, it becomes evident that the index initially rebounded above the 143-DAY EMA (Exponential Moving Average) but has since encountered resistance and remained stagnant. Several observations can be made by Examining the momentum indicators at the chart’s top. Firstly, the PPO (Percentage Price Oscillator) lines have flattened out, indicating a loss of downward momentum in the market. Secondly, the PPO histogram shows a rising trend near the zero line. Lastly, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) appears choppy, indicating a balanced internal strength of the market without a clear bullish or bearish bias. Two key observations can be made on the Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart. Firstly, the ADVL (Advance-Decline Line) has continued to fall, indicating a diminishing number of advancing assets relative to declining ones. This suggests a potential weakening in market breadth. Secondly, the McClellan Summation Index has flattened, indicating a lack of sustained upward or downward movement in the market.

The chart on the right shows that all four A50R lines are currently oversold, a bearish signal for the crypto market. This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average, which is currently at a low level compared to previous periods. This suggests that the overall internal strength of the cryptocurrency market is weak, and downward pressure on the market may ease.

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

Outlook for this week

The quasi-periodic nature of market waves in the cryptocurrency markets provides some level of predictability and insights into potential market trends. While their predictability can only be partially anticipated, it allows for market behavior analysis. Examining the momentum indicators, several signals emerge for the near future. Firstly, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) currently stands at 38, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment prevailing in the market. Secondly, the PPO (Percentage Price Oscillator) histogram may continue its current direction, and the PPO lines may potentially change their trajectory. Additionally, the Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) may flatten out. Considering these signals, it indicates a market environment characterized by a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment, with potential shifts in momentum and a stabilization of market breadth. Based on this setup, an upward move is likely.

Performance of various groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens) 

Based on the data in the table, the overall index in NWST1100 has risen by 0.8% over the past week. The chart below highlights the performance of several cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which measure the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Looking back over the last thirty days, Bitcoin seems to have performed the best, with a fall of 4.76%.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

The accompanying chart compares the performance of the average Digital Asset (Coins, Tokens) represented by our NWST1100  index with the average global share represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The quotient between these two indices hit a record high 18 months ago, indicating that digital assets were outperforming traditional stocks at that time. However, over the last 12 months, the NWST1100 index has lagged behind the W1Dow index by 22.7%. This suggests that traditional stocks have performed better than digital assets during this period. Nevertheless, this year, the NWST1100 index has outperformed the W1Dow index by 34.7%. This recent shift indicates that crypto investments are becoming more successful again, potentially signaling a resurgence in the performance of digital assets. The dashed blue curve on the chart represents the 143-DAY EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of the quotient between the two indices. This EMA has been lower than the long-run mean represented by the brown dashed line at 8.41. According to the theory of Mean reversion, which suggests that asset prices and historical returns will eventually revert to their long-run means, this difference in the EMA could present opportunities for buying digital assets at lower prices. The quotient’s pattern illustrates that crypto investments have been more successful after experiencing a rebound and subsequent growth. This information could be valuable for investors looking to capitalize on potential opportunities in the digital asset market.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow. 

Indices Revision 5-19-2023

Based on the latest Bi-weekly revision, Pepe and Sui have improved their ranking and were added to the NWSL100 index. Sui was previously included in the NWSM200 index. On the other hand, EthereumPoW and UNUS SED LEO were removed from the NWSL100 index. Several new mid-cap assets have been added to the indices, including Open Campus, Ordinals, and ARPA. More information about the additions and deletions for other indices in the family is available in each index’s presentation.

Winning member

Congratulations to Kava (KAVA) for being the winning member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant rank jump. We gauged Kava (Kava (KAVA))  Large-cap Non-Ethereum-based Token with 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100) to make an appropriate peer comparison. On average (violet area chart), the relationship between NWSL100  and KAVA has shown that KAVA has outperformed NWSL100 by 43% over the previous ten weeks, indicating its significant progress in the market. First, compare the KAVA green area graph with the index (orange area graph) while observing the correlation graph. The correlation graph explains the weak correlation (Pearson’s correlation coefficient = 0.16). 80% of the time, it was moving in the same direction as the NWSL100; however, it has been a poor representative of the NWSL100 index regarding price changes.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view. 

Kava (KAVA) Website: https://www.kava.io/

KAVA Large-cap Non-Ethereum-based Token is 64th in the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSTo100, NWSOT50

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade:  Poor, 17.2 (Average for Large-caps: 18)

Over the last week, the average market cap was $488.7 million, and the average daily volume was $46.1 million.

*The chart below shows the KAVA compared to NWSL100 at the top, the box in the middle of the chart shows the original price, and at the bottom, we see NWSL100 and the correlation between  KAVA and NWSL100.