2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Mar-24

The NWST1100 index has retraced 2.63% over the previous week. Conflux (CFX), Large-cap Coin, is a member of the NWSL100 crypto index, making the most significant jump in our ranking over the last two weeks.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is difficult to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. 

The previous report showed last week’s assumption. “A move to resistance R2 was likely because we are approaching the end of q1.” The NWST1100 chart shows the index topped below the hurdle (resistance R2) and then consolidated in the narrow range. Momentum indicators at the top show: PPO lines and histogram, and RSI; they changed direction. The Crypto Market Breadth indicators (at the bottom of the chart) have flattened out.

The chart on the right shows The percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average breadth indicator: All four A50R lines are at the midpoint, a rare and usually short-lived market indecision condition.

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

Outlook for this week

The waves are at least partially predictable due to their quasi-periodic nature. If we look ahead, the Momentum indicators give us the following signals: RSI is 58; RSI, PPO histogram, PPO lines, and the Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) may rebound. We expect higher volatility and window dressing before the end of q1. It occurs when portfolio and fund managers try to boost reported performance before publishing required reports. Based on this setup, a move to resistance R2 is likely.

Performance of various groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens) 

The table shows that the total (NWST1100) index has retraced 2.63% over the last week. In the chart below, we can see Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which measure the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Bitcoin has been the best-performing during the previous thirty days (+18.90%).

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

The chart compares the performance of the average Digital Asset (Coins, Tokens) represented by our NWST1100  index with the average global share represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. Their quotient hit a record high 16 months ago. The Percentage Change Marks on the chart show that NWST1100 lagged behind  W1Dow by 45.5% over the last 12 months, while NWST1100 was 47.6% higher this year. The blue curve is the average index price during the previous twelve months. We can see that the NWST1100 spot price is the same as twelve months index’s average price. That means: If we bought one NWST1100 every day over the last twelve months, our investment was recording a 0.3% loss on Friday. However, if we bought one NWST1100 daily in the previous six months, purchases are a bargain and highly profitable. Mean reversion theory implies that asset prices and historical returns gradually move toward the long-term mean (dashed line NWST1100:DJW = 8.25). The higher probability that the next movement of crypto prices will be closer to the mean.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow. 

Indices Revision 3-24-2023

The Bi-weekly revision updates the amount of each asset publicly available and any additions and deletions from the indexes. Conflux Network and Mask Network improved their ranking; they were added to NWSL100 and deleted from NWSM200; Helium and Holo were deleted from NWSL100. The new mid-caps are XinFin, Arbitrum, IRISNet, etc. Additions and deletions for the other indices from the family are available in each index presentation.

Winner member

We gauged Conflux (CFX) Large-cap Coin with 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100) to make an appropriate peer comparison. On average (violet area chart), the relationship between NWSL100  and CFX has shown that CFX was more potent over the last two months, and CFX has beaten NWSL100 by 1065% during the previous ten weeks. First, compare the CFX green area graph with the index (orange area graph) while observing the correlation graph. The correlation graph explains the semi-strong correlation (Pearson’s correlation coefficient = 0.46). It was moving in the same direction as the NWSL100; however, it has been a good representative of the NWSL100 index regarding price changes.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view. 

Conflux (CFX)  Website: https://confluxnetwork.org/

CFX Large-cap Coin is 61st in the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSCo100

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade:  Good, 21.8 (Average for Large-caps: 18.2)

Over the last week, the average market cap was $988.1 million, and the average daily volume was $623.4 million.

*The chart below shows the CFX compared to NWSL100 at the top, the box in the middle of the chart shows the original price, and at the bottom, we see NWSL100 and the correlation between  CFX and NWSL100.