The NWST1100 index has fallen by 2.48% over the previous week; the Santa Claus Rally did not happen, and the crypto market proved catastrophic for investors in 2022.
*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is difficult to read initially, but the chart shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth.
The previous report showed last week’s assumption. “A rally in the pink range has been possible.” The NWST1100 chart shows the index price got stuck under 10-Day EMA; the Santa Claus Rally did not happen. Momentum indicators at the top show PPO lines, PPO histogram, and RSI, which have flattened out; the Breadth indicators (at the bottom of the chart) have fallen.
This weekly report is the first report of the year 2023, and we briefly evaluate crypto markets in 2022. The average index price over the last twelve months is 3518. The volume profile is an advanced charting Indicator on the left side of the chart. It displays trading activity and plots a histogram on the chart, revealing dominant and significant price levels based on volume. It shows that the vast majority of volume was made between 1.850 and 2.600 points. The crypto markets proved catastrophic for investors. Bear markets have taken the responsibility of weeding out bad actors and offering a chance for promising crypto projects to display. Economies worldwide suffered massive inflation as the most influential fiat currencies succumbed to the ongoing geopolitical pressures. 2022 was a milestone year for leading crypto ecosystems. Bitcoin received Lightning Network (LN) protocol. Ethereum blockchain’s transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. The upgrade’s most significant impact was a drastic energy consumption reduction.
The chart on the right shows The percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average breadth indicator: All four A50R lines are oversold, but they have risen.
* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA for:
- 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
- 1100 members of NWST1100
- 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
- 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)
Outlook for this week
The waves are at least partially predictable due to their quasi-periodic nature. If we look ahead, the Momentum indicators give us the following signals: RSI is 35; RSI, PPO histogram, and PPO lines may start rising. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) may change the slope to positive. Based on this setup, I think a rebound in the year’s first week is likely.
Performance of various groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)
The table shows that the total (NWST1100) index has fallen by 2.48% over the last week. In the chart below, we can see Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which measure the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Bitcoin has been the best-performing during the previous thirty days (-1.58%).
Intermarket relationships in 2022
The Intermarket relationship chart below shows that Bitcoin has been the best-performing. The worst performer on the chart is Coins (NWSCo100). Since June, crypto markets have been consolidating after massive bearish action. The chart below shows three stages in 2022:
Stage 1: January and February 2022 inherited a slightly collapsing market, followed by a rebound in March
Stage 2: The crypto ecosystem was plagued with a series of bankruptcy filings, which multiplied the impact of the global recession on the market. Some of the most prominent scars for 2022 investors include the fall of Terraform Labs and Celsius freeze withdrawals. Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100) plunged over 60% YTD
Stage 3: former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, once loved by the masses, ended up breaking the trust of millions, so Crypto markets declined (November and December – on the right side of the chart)
The chart below shows NWST1100 index, which measures 1100 significant (by market capitalization) crypto assets’ performance, has fallen 72%.
Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity
The chart compares the performance of the average Digital Asset (Coins, Tokens) represented by our NWST1100 index with the average global share represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. Their quotient hit a record high 14 months ago. The Percentage Change Marks on the chart show that NWST1100 lagged behind W1Dow by 66.2% over the last 12 months. The blue curve is the average index price during the previous twelve months. We can see that the NWST1100 spot price is 46.6% lower than twelve months index’s average price. That means: If we bought one NWST1100 every day over the last twelve months, our investment is recording a 46.6% loss today. Global equity (W1Dow) spot price is only 6.3% lower than twelve months index’s average price.
*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.
Indices Revision 12-30-2022
The Bi-weekly revision updates the amount of each asset publicly available and any additions and deletions from the indexes. Moonbeam and Optimism improved their ranking; they were added to NWSL100 and deleted from NWSM200; FTX Token and STEPN were deleted from NWSL100. The new mid-caps are Bitget Token, Multichain, Sologenic, etc. Additions and deletions for the other indices from the family are available in each index presentation.