The NWST1100 index has plunged by 9.25% over the previous week. Ether has plummeted after Ethereum Merge to proof-of-stake, and Bitcoin has been the best-performing during the last thirty days.
*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on Swingtum Theory of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is difficult to read initially, but the graph shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth.
The previous report showed last week’s assumption. “The NWST1100 rally with a move near Resistance R1 (+10%) was likely”. The NWST1100 chart shows the index had rallied for two days and plummeted by the end of the last week. The index price formed a symmetrical triangle (more imminent breakout). Momentum indicators at the top show that PPO lines, RSI, and the PPO histogram changed direction to down. The Breadth indicators (at the bottom of the chart) have slopped down.
The chart on the right shows The percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average breadth indicator: All four A50R lines are oversold.
* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA for:
- 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
- 1100 members of NWST1100
- 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
- 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)
Outlook for this week
The waves are at least partially predictable due to their quasi-periodic nature; the area plots the McClellan Summation Index, a long-term measure of market breadth, that has fallen over the last week. If we look ahead, the Momentum indicators give us the following signals in the coming days: RSI is 35; RSI, PPO histogram, PPO lines, and the Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart will continue to fall in the first half of the week. Based on this setup, I think the NWST1100 price is in a bearish continuation; the test support S1 is likely.
Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)
The table shows that the total (NWST1100) index has plunged by 9.25% over the last week. On the chart below, we can see Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which measure the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Bitcoin has been the best-performing during the previous thirty days (-20.25%). Ether was the best performing before Ethereum Merge to proof-of-stake; however, it has plummeted after Ethereum Merge. The recently concluded Ethereum Merge was also blamed by many as a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, where the price of Ether rose as high as $2,000 in the run-up to the Merge, but has now declined to $1,300 post Merge
Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity
The chart compares the performance of the average Digital Asset (Coins, Tokens) represented by our NWST1100 index with the average global share represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. Their quotient hit a record high ten months ago; however, it is 67.6% lower now. The Percentage Change Marks on the chart show that NWST1100 lagged behind W1Dow by 56.5% over the last 12 months, while this year, NWST1100 was 55.2% lower. The blue curve is the average index price during the previous twelve months. We can see that the NWST1100 spot price is 53% lower than twelve months index’s average price. That means: If we bought one NWST1100 every day over the last twelve months, our investment is recording a 53% loss today. Global equity (W1Dow) spot price is 13.2% lower than twelve months index’s average price.
*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.