The NWST1100 index has plummeted by 14.2% over the previous week. The index price is on the verge of a bearish continuation. Will bulls use the dips to accumulate at lower levels?
*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on Swingtum Theory of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is difficult to read initially, but the graph shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth.
The previous report showed last week’s assumption. “Likely was a consolidation in a range between 25-day EMA and pivot R1”. The NWST1100 chart shows that support represented by the 25-day EMA did not hold, so the index price plummeted. Momentum indicators at the top show: PPO lines and RSI, and the PPO histogram. They changed direction to downward. The Breadth indicators (at the bottom of the chart) have slopped down.
The chart on the right shows The percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-days moving average breadth indicator: All four A50R lines are oversold. Possible is a fast rebound like in September 2021 or two months downtrend like in April 2022.
* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA for:
- 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
- 1100 members of NWST1100
- 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
- 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)
Outlook for this week
The waves are at least partially predictable due to their quasi-periodic nature; the area plots the McClellan Summation Index, a long-term measure of market breadth, that started falling last week. If we look ahead, the Momentum indicators give us the following signals in the coming days: RSI is 38, PPO histogram, PPO lines, and the Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart may continue falling. However, the index price is near strong support (2500 points), and if the support holds rebound will follow; indicators will change direction to upward. Based on this setup, I think the NWST1100 price is on the verge of a bearish continuation; it will test support, but a bearish continuation is less likely this week.
Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)
The table shows that the total (NWST1100) index has plummeted by 14.2% over the last week. On the chart below, we can see Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS DA Indexes, which measure the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Ether has been the best-performing during the previous thirty days (-0.2%).
Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity
The chart compares the performance of the average Digital Asset (Coins, Tokens) represented by our NWST1100 index with the average global share represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. Their quotient hit a record high nine months ago; however, it is 67.5% lower now. The Percentage Change Marks on the chart show that NWST1100 lagged behind W1Dow by 53.7% over the last 12 months, while this year, NWST1100 was 55.1% lower. The blue curve is the average index price during the previous twelve months. We can see that the NWST1100 spot price is 50.7% lower than twelve months index’s average price. That means: If we bought one NWST1100 every day over the last twelve months, our investment is recording a 50.7% loss today. Global equity (W1Dow) spot price is 7.1% lower than twelve months index’s average price.
*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.