The NWST1100 index fell 2.26% over the previous week; the week’s rally failure in crypto markets occurred near the upper trendline, acting as an overhead resistance barrier.
*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on Swingtum Theory of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is difficult to read initially, but the graph shows essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth.
The previous report showed that our assumption for the last week had been: “a breakout from the triangle was likely (+20%), then the index price might move to pivot R1 and test resistance represented by 143-day EMA.” The NWST1100 chart shows that Week’s rally failure in crypto markets occurred near the upper trendline, acting as an overhead resistance barrier. Momentum indicators at the top show: PPO lines, RSI, and the PPO histogram. These indicators and the Breadth indicators (at the bottom of the chart) have changed direction.
The chart on the right shows The percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-days moving average breadth indicator: All four A50R lines are oversold. They stayed on the oversold territory (below 30). In various measures of market breadth on the chart can be seen more clearly that the crypto markets were still in the downtrend.
* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA for:
- 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
- 1100 members of NWST1100
- 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
- 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)
Outlook for this week
The waves are at least partially predictable due to their quasi-periodic nature; the area plots the McClellan Summation Index, a long-term measure of market breadth. If we look ahead, the Momentum indicators give us the following signals in the coming days: RSI, PPO lines, and PPO histogram may change direction, as can the Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart. My opinion is based on this setup: a move near the pivot P is likely (+6%). However, a move to Pivot S1 is possible but less likely.
Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)
The table shows that the total (NWST1100) index has fallen by 2.26% over the last week. On the chart below, we can see Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS DA Indexes, which measure the performance of Ethereum based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), Coins (NWSCo100). Bitcoin (-11.60%) has been the best-performing during the previous thirty days.
Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity
The chart compares the performance of the average Digital Asset (Coins, Tokens) represented by our NWST1100 index with the average global equity represented by the Dow Jones global W1Dow index. Their quotient has been in equilibrium over the last 12 months; it hit a record high four months ago; however, it is 43.8% lower now. NWST1100 was 23.1% lower this year. The blue curve is the average index price during the previous twelve months. We can see that the NWST1100 spot price is 21.1% lower than twelve months index’s average price. That means: If we bought one NWST1100 every day over the last twelve months, our investment is recording a 21.8% loss today. Global equity (W1Dow) spot price is 5.7% lower than twelve months index’s average price.
*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow.