Could Bitcoin Drop to 11k?

Bitcoin is beginning to look like it might be running out of steam. Following the recent futures launch by  CME and Cboe, enthusiasm appears to be switching over to the so called alt-coins, such as ethereum and litecoin, which have been growing at an ever increasing rate relative to bitcoin. Could Bitcoin Drop to 11k?

According to CoinMarketCap, the cryptocurrency is currently trading at $16,700, down from the record high of $19,783 set on Dec. 17.

Overall, bitcoin has depreciated by 4.95% over the last 24 hours, however even more alarming is the $19 billion trading volume, which is indicating there may be some big players behind the selling off.

A major driver has certainly been the recent listing of bitcoin cash on Coinbase, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Due to the large number of new users many have jumped on the opportunity of a cheaper bitcoin, perhaps without realising the difference.

Trading of the BCH/BTC pair had to be halted after only 3 minutes, following a huge price spike, to avoid even more users paying a massive premium. After trading resumed, bitcoin cash price continued to rise and is currently at $3,765.

The question now is, how low will bitcoin go and could we see a reversal of the price leader of the bitcoin franchise, so called “flippening”?

Technical analysts are predicting the bitcoin price could drop as low as $11,000.

Bitcoin chart

The above chart (from CoinMarketCap) shows the falling price of bitcoin:

• Yesterday’s weak close confirmed a bearish pattern.
• The short term drop to $14,000 also indicates trouble may be on the horizon.

Based on historical bitcoin price action, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level would not be out of the question. If that were to happen, we could see the current pullback finding support around $11,000.

Harmonic price pattern analysis also identifies a potential reversal zone around $11,000.

A cypher pattern is a part of the harmonic trading methodology that utilizes the recognition of specific price patterns and the alignment of exact Fibonacci ratios to determine a highly probable reversal point.

Cypher is characterized by:

• AB= 0.382 to 0.618 retracement of the XA swing leg;
• BC= extend to minimum 1.272 and maximum 1.414 of the XA swing leg
• CD= retrace to 0.786 of the XC swing leg
• D = reversal point

Conclusion

• In the short term, BTC seems to have topped out near $20,000.
• $11,000 could act as a strong support.
• Possible Bullish scenario – A close today above the 5-day MA of $18,700 could indicate a price reversal and could yield a move above $20,000.