Crypto Market Breadth Survey Archives - Crypto Bloomberg

BrankoNovember 6, 2019
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13min231



Since the end of October, crypto markets have experienced significant changes which is a positive sign that we could be nearing the start of a bullish trend. The percent of DA above their 50-days EMA Breadth indicators are sloping up. A new uptrend was signaled on a break above the downtrend line.

Analysis of Market Direction… acumen knowing when to “hold ’em when to fold up, when to walk away and when to run. Timing is Everything!

*Breadth indicators are powerful technical analysis tools that gauge the direction of the market and help determine if it’s bullish, bearish or neutral. They offer a different perspective on the markets that can’t be seen through other indicators by analyzing the degree of participation in an advance or a decline to see whether or not an uptrend or downtrend is broad-based and therefore likely to continue. The 2100NEWS DA Factor Indexes were developed to show that different groups of Digital Assets behave differently in certain market conditions. Crypto Intermarket analysis is a branch of technical analysis that examines the correlations between four major factors: Coins, Tokens, Ehtereum based, and not Ethereum based Tokens. Chartists can use these relationships to identify the stage of the business cycle and improve their forecasting abilities. We use a combination of several methods and look for confluence and increase their odds.

However, crypto markets recover from a bearish summer. I’m confident we’ll see fresh cash entering the market. Bitcoin dominance had reached a 2019 high of around 70% during September 2019, then was dropping out of a multi-month formation. After the altcoin bloodshed of the current year, it seemed Bitcoin investors might be looking into diversifying with riskier assets. Since the beginning of September, the shy start of the ALT season had been showing for two weeks, Bitcoin was being sold to buy ALT coins,  the money was shifting towards specific altcoins. After four months of falling, the first signs of change began to emerge. Professional traders from traditional markets, who traded stocks and other financial instruments, also entered the market. Most of the movements, that are happening now, have already occurred with stocks. You may ask why? Because anything can change on the market, except for human psychology and the actions that people perform in a given situation. We need to know that analytical brutes, without the knowledge and understanding of financial markets, always predict the future in the direction of current market movements and also always wait for a whole series of confirmations and draw children’s drawings called patterns that predict catastrophe. For investor timing is everything. The survey below shows, the situation has started to change since the beginning of October, when a positive trend began to emerge within the larger negative, which is also clearly seen in the following three charts below, which represent the three types of the crypto market breadth indicators.

The percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA

The chart below compares the percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA for:

  1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
  2. 1100 members of NWST1100
  3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
  4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

over the last 10 months. All four A50R lines had risen above 30 signaling an end of a bearish trend on crypto markets. Large caps percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA is nearly 70 (top box), which is on the edge (red area) that marks the start of the bullish trend.

*The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving average is used for the short-medium term timeframe. The percent of DA above their 50-days EMA is best suited for overbought and oversold levels. Because of its volatility, this indicator will move to overbought and oversold levels more often than the indicators based on longer moving averages. In general, readings above 70% are deemed overbought and readings below 30% are deemed oversold.

 

Looking at the chart below we can see AD Volume Line of Large-caps represented by Large Cap Index (NWSL100). The market is considered weak when the AD Volume Line moves to new lows along with the underlying index. This shows strong selling pressure. We can see on the charts, that selling pressure has been waning and the decline was nearing an end at the end of September. ADVL 10-day EMA line had changed the slope to positive three weeks later, then had crossed ADVL 25-day EMA and confirmed a rally.

 

*Looking at the breadth charts ADVP is a breadth statistic based on Net Advancing Volume, which is the volume of advancing digital assets less the volume of declining. Because it is based on volume, the AD Volume Line measures the buying and selling pressure behind an advance or a decline. The volume behind advancing Digital Assets represents buying pressure, while the volume behind declining Digital Assets represents selling pressure. An AD Volume Line that rises and records new highs along with the underlying index shows strong buying pressure. This is bullish. An AD Volume Line that fails to keep up with the underlying index and fails to confirm new highs reflects weakness in buying pressure. Market strength is undermined when buying pressure fails to confirm an advance.

The chart below includes two breadth indicators that work together.  The area plots the McClellan Summation Index.  That’s a long term measure of market breadth.  [See explanation of both indicators below]  The Summation Index is positive when it’s above the zero lines. Drops below the zero line are negative. The lines have been sloping up over the past month. The histogram is the McClellan Oscillator. That’s a short-term measure of market breadth. The two lines work together. Oscillator moves above zero cause the Summation Index to rise.  The Oscillator has spent most of October above zero which caused the Summation Index to strengthen. Crossings above the zero line is a positive signal.  That happened at the end of October, the Large caps markets started an uptrend.

FOOTNOTE… The McClellan Oscillator is based on net advances of daily stock gainers minus daily losers.  It’s derived by subtracting a 39-day EMA of net advances from its 19-day EMA.  It’s a short-term momentum indicator of market breadth.  The McClellan Summation Index is a running cumulative total of the Oscillator.  And is a longer-term measure of NWST1100 breadth.  Both indicators were developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan.

Charts below compare the most important representatives:

The most difficult time to make decisions in the markets is when the down market is changing because the change is fast and big, the change that happens in a day or two usually represents one-third of future growth. Since the end of October, crypto markets have experienced significant changes which is a positive sign that we could be nearing the start of a bullish trend. During an extreme bearish price spike on Oct-23, some people called a good opportunity to get prices on the cheap. In terms of inventory (position trades), the prices were WHOLESALE. This was where retail traders had been shaken out of their assets while institutions quietly absorbed the available supply and accumulated. After a fake breakdown, NWST1100 was undergoing some really massive bullish action, the index was making one of the largest price leaps in its lifespan indicating the early stages of a bullish reversal came to fruition. The rally was facing stiff resistance at the downtrend line. This showed that the bears had been still active at higher levels. After a few days of consolidation, the bulls assert their supremacy once again. A new uptrend was signaled on a break above the downtrend line. The 25-day EMA is sloping up and the RSI is in positive territory, which shows that advantage is with the bulls.

2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100)

The indicators give us similar signals of stronger upside momentum as for NWST1100: we can see that RSI is bullish – over 60, the brown PPO lines are sloping up. Crypto market Breadth indicators are rising, NWSL100 is not strongly correlated with BTC as NWST1000 (bottom box). The difference, however, is that NWSL100 will exceed the previous peak if it grows by 90%, NWST1100 after 50% growth.

 


BrankoSeptember 17, 2019
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13min725

Since the beginning of September, crypto markets have experienced significant changes which is a positive sign that we could be nearing the end of this bottom process.  The percent of DA above their 50-days EMA have changed the slope to positive but still signaling a short-term oversold condition. A breadth statistic is showing that a change in market direction is likely. Ether, NWSCo100, and NWLS100 have signs of stronger upside momentum.

Analysis of Market Direction… acumen knowing when to “hold ’em when to fold up, when to walk away and when to run. Timing is Everything!

*Breadth indicators are powerful technical analysis tools that gauge the direction of the market and help determine if it’s bullish, bearish or neutral. They offer a different perspective on the markets that can’t be seen through other indicators by analyzing the degree of participation in an advance or a decline to see whether or not an uptrend or downtrend is broad-based and therefore likely to continue. The 2100NEWS DA Factor Indexes were developed to show that different groups of Digital Assets behave differently in certain market conditions. Crypto Intermarket analysis is a branch of technical analysis that examines the correlations between four major factors: Coins, Tokens, Ehtereum based, and not Ethereum based Tokens. Chartists can use these relationships to identify the stage of the business cycle and improve their forecasting abilities. We use a combination of several methods and look for confluence and increase their odds.

Since the beginning of September, and especially in recent days, crypto markets have experienced significant changes which is a positive sign that we could be nearing the end of this bottom process. The shy start of the ALT season has been showing for two weeks, it means that Bitcoin is being sold to buy ALT coins. Bitcoin dominance was dropping out of a multi-month formation. After four months of consolidation, or even falling, the first signs of change began to emerge. In such a situation, markets were not expected to be driven by new inflows of money from new investors, but rather by the redistribution of investors within the crypto ecosystem.  We need to be aware that the weight of Bitcoin represents near 70% of the crypto market’s capitalization.  The ALT season can be a brake on NWST1100 growth, but we expect the positive atmosphere in the remaining indexes to move the NWST1100 higher. For the investor timing is everything. This time the start of ALT season is likely, The survey below shows. It looks at the crypto market breadth indicators and leading and the most important representatives during the ALT season.

The percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA

The chart below compares the percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA for:

  1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
  2. 1100 members of NWST1100
  3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
  4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

over the last 10 months. All four A50R lines had dipped below 30 signaling a short-term oversold condition but since the beginning of September, lines have changed the slope.

*The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving average is used for the short-medium term timeframe. The percent of DA above their 50-days EMA is best suited for overbought and oversold levels. Because of its volatility, this indicator will move to overbought and oversold levels more often than the indicators based on longer moving averages. In general, readings above 70% are deemed overbought and readings below 30% are deemed oversold.

The chart above shows the AD Volume Line of the Coin Index (NWSCo100). Looking at the chart below we can see AD Volume Line of Large-caps represented by Large Cap Index (NWSL100). The market is considered weak when the AD Volume Line moves to new lows along with the underlying index. This shows strong selling pressure. We can see on the charts, that selling pressure has been waning and the decline was nearing an end at the beginning of September. ADVL 10-day EMA line changed the slope to positive. We are waiting for crossing ADVL 25-day EMA which would confirm a rally.

*Looking at the breadth charts ADVP is a breadth statistic based on Net Advancing Volume, which is the volume of advancing digital assets less the volume of declining. Because it is based on volume, the AD Volume Line measures the buying and selling pressure behind an advance or a decline. The volume behind advancing Digital Assets represents buying pressure, while the volume behind declining Digital Assets represents selling pressure. An AD Volume Line that rises and records new highs along with the underlying index shows strong buying pressure. This is bullish. An AD Volume Line that fails to keep up with the underlying index and fails to confirm new highs reflects weakness in buying pressure. Market strength is undermined when buying pressure fails to confirm an advance.

The chart below includes two breadth indicators that work together.  The area plots the McClellan Summation Index.  That’s a long term measure of market breadth.  [See explanation of both indicators below]  The Summation Index is positive when it’s above the zero line.  Drops below that zero line are negative.  Crossings above the zero line are positive signals.  That happened at the start of this year.  The lines have been flattening out over the past month. The histogram is the McClellan Oscillator. That’s a short-term measure of market breadth. The two lines work together. Oscillator moves below zero cause the Summation Index to drop.  The Oscillator has spent most of the July below zero which caused the Summation Index to weaken.  Oscillator moves above zero and turns the Summation Index higher. The upturn in the McClellan Oscillator is boosting its Summation Index and signals start of ALT season, the Coin markets started an uptrend.

FOOTNOTE… The McClellan Oscillator is based on net advances of daily stock gainers minus daily losers.  It’s derived by subtracting a 39-day EMA of net advances from its 19-day EMA.  It’s a short-term momentum indicator of market breadth.  The McClellan Summation Index is a running cumulative total of the Oscillator.  And is a longer-term measure of NWST1100 breadth.  Both indicators were developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan.

Charts below compare the most important representatives during the ALT season:

  1. Ether
  2. 2100NEWS Digital Assets Coin Index (NWSC100)
  3. 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100)

 

Ether has been lagging behind Bitcoin for four months. A number of reasons have been given for its weaker performance. A bullish divergence forms when the PPO Line fails to record a lower low along with the index. This means selling pressure is waning and the decline may be nearing an end.

 

2100NEWS Digital Assets Coin Index (NWSCo100)

Major DA indexes are falling sharply and suffering big losses. The chart below shows a steep selloff, the NWSCo100 vs. Bitcoin and Ether was bearing down from April to September.

The indicators give us the following signals: we can see that RSI is bullish – over 60, the brown PPO histogram bars could turn more positive in the next few days.  As a consequence, the PPO lines are close to crossing above 0. That would be a sign of stronger upside momentum.

2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100)

The indicators give us similar signals of stronger upside momentum as for NWSCo100: we can see that RSI is bullish – over 60, the brown PPO histogram bars sloping positively.  As a consequence, the PPO lines are close to crossing above 0.

 


BrankoAugust 14, 2019
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10min569

MORE HEAVY Digital Assets SELLING…Digital Assets are under heavy selling pressure again.  The percent of DA above their 50-days EMA is signaling a short-term oversold condition. PF charts and a breadth statistic based on Net Advancing Volume are showing market decoupling. NWST1100 bearing down on its Bollinger and last month’s low which will be an important test.

Analysis of Market Direction… acumen knowing when to “hold ’em when to fold up, when to walk away and when to run. Timing is Everything!

Breadth indicators are powerful technical analysis tools that gauge the direction of the market and help determine if it’s bullish, bearish or neutral. They offer a different perspective on the markets that can’t be seen through other indicators by analyzing the degree of participation in an advance or a decline to see whether or not an uptrend or downtrend is broad-based and therefore likely to continue. The 2100NEWS DA Factor Indexes were developed to show that different groups of Digital Assets behave differently in certain market conditions. Crypto Intermarket analysis is a branch of technical analysis that examines the correlations between four major factors: Coins, Tokens, Ehtereum based, and not Ethereum based Tokens. Chartists can use these relationships to identify the stage of the business cycle and improve their forecasting abilities. We use a combination of several methods and look for confluence and increase their odds.

The percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA

The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving average is used for the short-medium term timeframe. The percent of DA above their 50-days EMA is best suited for overbought and oversold levels. Because of its volatility, this indicator will move to overbought and oversold levels more often than the indicators based on longer moving averages. In general, readings above 70% are deemed overbought and readings below 30% are deemed oversold.

The chart below compares the percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA for:

  1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
  2. 1100 members of NWST1100
  3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
  4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

over the last 10 months. All four A50R lines have dipped below 30 signaling a short-term oversold condition.

Looking at the breadth charts ADVP is a breadth statistic based on Net Advancing Volume, which is the volume of advancing digital assets less the volume of declining. Because it is based on volume, the AD Volume Line measures the buying and selling pressure behind an advance or a decline. The volume behind advancing Digital Assets represents buying pressure, while the volume behind declining Digital Assets represents selling pressure. An AD Volume Line that rises and records new highs along with the underlying index shows strong buying pressure. This is bullish. An AD Volume Line that fails to keep up with the underlying index and fails to confirm new highs reflects weakness in buying pressure. Market strength is undermined when buying pressure fails to confirm an advance.

The chart above shows AD Volume Line of the Total Index (NWST1100), the most important member of the index is Bitcoin (weight 69.3%). Looking at the chart below we can see AD Volume Line of Large-caps represented by Large Cap Index (NWSL100). The market is considered weak when the AD Volume Line moves to new lows along with the underlying index. This shows strong selling pressure. A bullish divergence forms when the AD Volume Line fails to record a lower low along with the index. This means selling pressure is waning and the decline may be nearing an end.

The chart below includes two breadth indicators that work together.  The area plots the McClellan Summation Index.  That’s a long term measure of market breadth.  [See explanation of both indicators below]  The Summation Index is positive when it’s above the zero line.  Drops below that zero line are negative.  Crossings above the zero line are positive signals.  That happened at the start of this year.   The line has been dropping over the past three months. This is where the McClellan Oscillator comes into play. The histogram is the McClellan Oscillator. That’s a short-term measure of market breadth. The two lines work together. Oscillator moves below zero cause the Summation Index to drop.  The Oscillator has spent most of the last six weeks below zero which caused the Summation Index to weaken.  Oscillator moves above zero turns the Summation Index higher. The upturn in the McClellan Oscillator is boosting its Summation Index, and signals that the 2019 market uptrend remains intact.

FOOTNOTE… The McClellan Oscillator is based on net advances of daily stock gainers minus daily losers.  It’s derived by subtracting a 39-day EMA of net advances from its 19-day EMA.  It’s a short-term momentum indicator of market breadth.  The McClellan Summation Index is a running cumulative total of the Oscillator.  And is a longer-term measure of NWST1100 breadth.  Both indicators were developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan.

 

The PF charts below compare:

  1. Bitcoin
  2. 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100)
  3. 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100)

Bitcoin chart is starting to look vulnerable. Large-cap Digital Assets represented by NWSL100 have been lagging behind Bitcoin for four months. A number of reasons have been given for their weaker performance.

 

2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100)

Major DA indexes are falling sharply and suffering big losses. The chart shows a steep selloff, the NWST1100 bearing down on its Bollinger and last month’s low which will be an important test. If the index will survive this week’s selling and remaining above chart support at prior lows, A more likely course for the next couple of weeks may be a period of “backing and filling” between recent highs and lows. The brown PPO histogram bars falling below zero, which has also turned the PPO lines negative. That loss of upside momentum is coming at a bad time.


BrankoFebruary 18, 2019
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6min919

Analysis of Market Direction… acumen knowing when to “hold ’em when to fold up, when to walk away and when to run. Timing is Everything!

Breadth indicators are powerful technical analysis tools that gauge the direction of the market and help determine if it’s bullish, bearish or neutral. They offer a different perspective on the markets that can’t be seen through other indicators by analyzing the degree of participation in an advance or a decline to see whether or not an uptrend or downtrend is broad-based and therefore likely to continue. We use a combination of several methods and look for confluence and increase their odds.

We analyze the crypto market breadth and direction of the market by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100) which represent top 1100 Digital Assets and 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100) which represent 100 large-cap Digital Assets. In the last 2100News crypto market breadth survey, the market showed signs of bearish direction.  Since early February, for almost three weeks we have seen confusing moves in a sideways trend.

Crypto Intermarket analysis

The 2100NEWS DA Factor Indexes were developed to show that different groups of Digital Assets behave differently in certain market conditions. Crypto Intermarket analysis is a branch of technical analysis that examines the correlations between four major factors: Coins, Tokens, Ehtereum based, and not Ethereum based Tokens. Chartists can use these relationships to identify the stage of the business cycle and improve their forecasting abilities. There are clear relationships between coins and tokens. Knowing these relationships can help chartists determine the stage of the investing cycle. An excellent indicator that gauges the direction change to bullish is Coins to Tokens ratio. On the chart below, we can see 2100NEWS DA Coin Index (NWSCo100) and 2100NEWS DA Ethereum Tokens Index (NWSET100). The graph shows that the pattern of Coins and Tokens movement marked with a blue vertical line predicts the start of a rally.

2100news Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100)

Sideways price action lasts almost one month. The market is always moving in the waves, last ten days the wave of  PPO histogram was positive. On the PPO, we can see that it was approaching the zero line. RSI was over 60 which is bullish. The target is near 500 points.

Looking at the breadth charts ADVP is a breadth statistic based on Net Advancing Volume, which is the volume of advancing digital assets less the volume of declining. McClellan summation index is lagging indicator vs. ADVL and with it, we are looking for confirmation. Since early February, for over ten days McClellan oscillator has been predominantly positive. On the McClellan summation index chart below we can see, that the direction of the market turns to bullish is confirmed.

 

2100news Digital Assets 100 Large Cap  Index (NWSL100)

Large-cap Digital Assets have similar charts with similar indicators set up as the total market. The target is near 470 points.

Looking at the breadth charts McClellan summation index is lagging indicator vs. ADVL and with it, we are looking for confirmation. Since early February, for over ten days McClellan oscillator has been predominantly positive. On the McClellan summation index chart below we can see, that the direction of the market turns to bullish is confirmed.

 

The percentage of DA trading above 50 days EMA

The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving average is used for the short-medium term timeframe. The percent of DA above their 50-days EMA is best suited for overbought and oversold levels. Because of its volatility, this indicator will move to overbought and oversold levels more often than the indicators based on longer moving averages. In general, readings above 70% are deemed overbought and readings below 30% are deemed oversold.

 

 

 


BrankoJanuary 28, 2019
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7min586

Analysis of Market Direction… Timing is Everything!

Breadth indicators are powerful technical analysis tools that gauge the direction of the market and help determine if it’s bullish, bearish or neutral. They offer a different perspective on the markets that can’t be seen through other indicators by analyzing the degree of participation in an advance or a decline to see whether or not an uptrend or downtrend is broad-based and therefore likely to continue. We use a combination of several methods and look for confluence and increase their odds.

We analyze the crypto market breadth and direction of the market by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100) which represent top 1100 Digital Assets and 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100) which represent 100 large-cap Digital Assets. In the last 2100News crypto market breadth survey we were observing the neutral direction of the market and sideways price action, the path of least resistance was to the downside. Since early January, for over three weeks we have seen confusing moves in a sideways trend where traders tend to lose most of their trading capital because the moves are extremely random most of the time. 

2100news Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100)

Looking at the breadth charts ADVL shows us choppy up and down graph. ADVP is a breadth statistic based on Net Advancing Volume, which is the volume of advancing digital assets less the volume of declining. ADVP is weighted towards large-caps. McClellan summation index is lagging indicator vs. ADVL and with it, we are looking for confirmation. ADVL and McClellan summation index was declining. Since early January, for over three weeks McClellan oscillator has been predominantly negative. On the McClellan summation index chart below we can see, that the direction of the market turns to bearish is almost confirmed.

Sideways price action lasts almost one month. Bears had more dominance in the market. The market is always moving in the waves, last three weeks the wave of PPO, and PPO histogram show a negative wave. On the chart, we can see a bullish flag pattern. I am still open for bullish and bearish scenarios at this point. Market shows signs of bearish direction (RSI < 40), support zone did not hold. On the downside, the target is near 350 points, but it is important we don’t make a big dump that we see clear buying support. As soon as that support zone around 350 really breaks with normal/high volume, things could get very ugly. We could even see a lot of panics. On the upside, reversal is 5% higher.

 

2100news Digital Assets 100 Large Cap  Index (NWSL100)

Looking at the breadth charts ADVL shows us choppy up and down graph. McClellan summation index is lagging indicator vs. ADVL and with it, we are looking for confirmation. Since early January, for over three weeks McClellan oscillator has been predominantly negative. ADVL and McClellan summation index was declining. The McClellan summation index chart below shows, we are near confirmation that the direction of the market turns to bearish.

Large-cap Digital Assets have similar charts as total market. Last three weeks the wave of PPO, and PPO histogram show a negative wave. On the chart, we can see a bullish flag pattern. Market shows signs of bearish direction (RSI < 40). On the downside, the target is near 320 points, but it is important we don’t make a big dump that we see clear buying support. As soon as that support zone around 320 really breaks, things could get very ugly. On the upside, reversal is near 370 points. 

Ratio of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

The 2100NEWS DA Factor Indexes  was developed to show that different groups of Digital Assets behave differently in certain market conditions. An excellent indicator that gauges the direction change to bullish is Coins to Tokens ratio. On the chart below, we can see 2100NEWS DA Coin Index (NWSCo100) and 2100NEWS DA Ethereum Tokens Index (NWSET100), when this ratio soars a market trend turns to bullish. 

 

 


BrankoJanuary 9, 2019

6min734

Analysis of Market Direction… Timing is Everything!

We use a combination of several methods and look for confluence and increase their odds. Breadth indicators offer a different perspective on the markets that can’t be seen through other indicators. They are powerful technical analysis tools that gauge the direction of the market and help determine if it’s bullish, bearish or neutral. They do so by analyzing the degree of participation in an advance or a decline to see whether or not an uptrend or downtrend is broad-based and therefore likely to continue. 

After Christmas, momentum was lost and direction of the market was neutral, trend sideways. The struggle to close above a key resistance level has left the asset vulnerable to shorts and increasing sell-pressure. Based on the indicators, one can see that traders are clueless at this point, which leaves the path of least resistance to the downside. We analyze the crypto market breadth and direction of the market by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100) which represent top 1100 Digital Assets and 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100) which represent 100 large-cap Digital Assets.

2100news Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100)

What do these charts tell us? Looking at the breadth charts ADVL shows us choppy up and down graph. The ADVP is negative for four consecutive days in order to create a negative trend on the market. ADVP is a breadth statistic based on Net Advancing Volume, which is the volume of advancing digital assets less the volume of declining. ADVP is weighted towards large-caps. McClellan summation index is lagging indicator vs. ADVL and with it, we are looking for confirmation. It is still positive but declining (blue arrow) for the first time after Christmas rally.

 

Sideways price action last fifteen days is due to the fact that the market did not have the energy (momentum) to become bullish (RSI <60). The market is always moving in the waves, the wave of PPO histogram shows that it can follow a few days of a negative wave. If buyers think that this is a buying opportunity, the index value will remain in the surroundings of the pivot near 415 points. Market shows signs of short term downtrend inside bigger sideways trend. Bears have more dominance in the market as bulls go back into sleep mode. On the downside, if the price fails to hold the 415 level, we could see a powerful selloff in the market, potentially taking us down to 350. 

 

 

2100news Digital Assets 100 Large Cap  Index (NWSL100)

Looking at the breadth charts ADVL shows us choppy up and down graph. McClellan summation index is lagging indicator vs. ADVL and with it, we are looking for confirmation. It is still positive but declining (blue arrow) for the first time after Christmas rally.

 

Large-cap Digital Assets have similar charts as total market.  Sideways price action last fifteen days is due to the fact that the market did not have the energy (momentum) to become bullish (RSI <60). The wave of PPO histogram shows that it can follow a few days of a negative wave. If buyers think that this is a buying opportunity, the index value will remain in the surroundings of the pivot near 400 points. Market shows signs of short term downtrend inside bigger sideways trend.On the downside, if the price fails to hold the 395 level, we could see a powerful selloff in the market, potentially taking us down to 320. 

 

 


BrankoJanuary 3, 2019

8min707

Analysis of Market Direction… Timing is Everything!

Breadth indicators offer a different perspective on the markets that can’t be seen through other indicators. We use a combination of several methods and look for confluence and increase their odds. Surveys contain educational material and show how analysis approaches or tools exactly work. Market Breadth Indicators are powerful technical analysis tools that gauge the direction of the market and help determine if it’s bullish, bearish or neutral. They do so by analyzing the degree of participation in an advance or a decline to see whether or not an uptrend or downtrend is broad-based and therefore likely to continue. 

Christmas rally was only a big correction upwards, a big bear shake out. After Christmas, momentum was lost and direction of the market was neutral, trend sideways. We analyze the crypto market breadth and direction of the market by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100) which represent top 1100 Digital Assets and 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100) which represent 100 large-cap Digital Assets.

2100news Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100)

What do these charts tell us? Looking at the breadth charts ADVL shows us choppy up and down graph. The ADVP should be positive or negative for more than two consecutive days in order to create a positive or negative trend on the market. The market price moves due to an increase in demand or supply. The meaning of demand and supply is nothing but volumeADVP is a breadth statistic based on Net Advancing Volume, which is the volume of advancing digital assets less the volume of declining. ADVP is weighted towards large-caps. McClellan summation index is lagging indicator vs. ADVL and with it, we are looking for confirmation. it is still positive and slightly growing.

It could be that potentially is forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern (red line – shoulders). However, we could also simply be continuing the downtrend by forming another lower high. At this point, it isn’t immediately clear which way the market will move. Sideways price action last ten days is due to the fact that the market did not have the energy (momentum) to become bullish (RSI <60). The market is always moving in the waves, the wave of PPO histogram shows that it can follow a few days of a negative wave. If buyers think that this is a buying opportunity, the index value will remain in the surroundings of the pivot. The trading range could be between 415 and 500 points. On the downside, if the price fails to hold the 415 level, we could see a powerful selloff in the market, potentially taking us down to 350. 

 

2100news Digital Assets 100 Large Cap  Index (NWSL100)

Looking at the breadth charts ADVL shows us choppy up and down graph. The ADVP should be positive or negative for more than two consecutive days in order to create a positive or negative trend on the market. McClellan summation index is lagging indicator vs. ADVL and with it, we are looking for confirmation. it is still positive and slightly growing.

Large-cap Digital Assets have similar charts as total market.  Sideways price action last ten days is due to the fact that the market did not have the energy (momentum) to become bullish (RSI <60). The wave of PPO histogram shows that it can follow a few days of a negative wave. If buyers think that this is a buying opportunity, the index value will remain in the surroundings of the pivot. The trading range could be between 400 and 470 points. On the downside, if the price fails to hold the 395 level, we could see a powerful selloff in the market, potentially taking us down to 320. 

 

2100NEWS DA Ethereum Based Index (NWSET100) vs ETH

2100NEWS DA Factor Indexes are designed to capture the return of factors that are common to individual groups of digital assets at crypto markets.  A very interesting finding comes when we look what was the behavior of Ethereum based tokens vs Ether in the Christmas rally and after it. We can see on the chart that Ethereum based tokens lost 33% vs. Ether. This tells us, that investors were selling tokens and buying Ether. 

 

2100NEWS DA Coin Index (NWSCo100) vs 2100NEWS DA Ethereum Based Index (NWSET100)

The second very interesting finding comes when we look what was the behavior of Coin Index vs Ethereum based tokens. On the chart, we can see that Coins are the better performer in whole market rallies. They started the Christmas rally (blue arrow) and performed almost 19% better than Ethereum based Tokens. In a bearish or sideways market, Coins are a worse performer than Ethereum based Tokens.

 


BrankoDecember 24, 2018

4min491

Analysis of Market Direction… Timing is Everything!

Market Breadth Indicators are powerful technical analysis tools that gauge the direction of the market and help traders determine if it’s bullish, bearish or neutral. They do so by analyzing the degree of participation in an advance or a decline to see whether or not an uptrend or downtrend is broad-based and therefore likely to continue. Breadth indicators offer a different perspective on the markets that can’t be seen through other indicators.

Last week started with the strong up move, it was only a big correction upwards, a big bear shake out. We show charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100) which represent top 1100 Digital Assets and 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100) which represent 100 large-cap Digital Assets.

2100news Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100)

Christmas rally stopped. ADVL (ADVP on the chart below is negative), PPO histogram, and RSI changed direction. In my opinion, currently, the short-term price action is consolidation. The trend is sideways.  Correction Target is near 420 points. 

2100news Digital Assets 100 Large Cap  Index (NWSL100)

Large-cap Digital Assets have similar charts as total market. ADVL (ADVP on the chart below is negative for the second day), PPO histogram, and RSI changed direction. In my opinion, consolidation is in place and a sideways market.  Correction Target is near 400 points. 

2100NEWS DA Ethereum Based Index (NWSET100)

2100NEWS DA Factor Indexes are designed to capture the return of factors that are common to individual groups of digital assets at crypto markets. I’m a researcher that is interested in the deep understanding of crypto, I’m curious to know what are the links between the different groups of digital assets. A very interesting finding comes when we look what was the behavior of Ethereum based tokens and Ether in the Christmas rally.

We can see on the chart that Ethereum based tokens lost 23% vs. Ether in the Christmas rally. This tells us, that investors were selling tokens and buying Ether during the rally. 

2100NEWS DA Coin Index (NWSCo100)

On the chart, we can see that Coins started the Christmas rally (blue arrow) and performed almost 19% better than Ethereum based Tokens.


BrankoDecember 18, 2018

3min367

Market Breadth Indicators are powerful technical analysis tools that gauge the direction of the market and help traders determine if it’s bullish, bearish or neutral. They do so by analyzing the degree of participation in an advance or a decline to see whether or not an uptrend or downtrend is broad-based and therefore likely to continue. Breadth indicators offer a different perspective on the markets that can’t be seen through other indicators.

In a way they are indicators of market sentiment that allow traders to see how the market performs as a whole. Breadth indicators are often used in combination with other indicators to confirm trends. The most basic market breadth indicator is the Advance/Decline Line but there are several other popular breadth indicators such as the McClellan Summation Index, McClellan Summation Oscillator.

In the last weekly crypto report, I mentioned a Christmas rally. This week started with the strong up move. We show charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100) which represent top 1100 Digital Assets and 2100NEWS Digital Assets 100 Large Cap Index (NWSL100) which represent 100 large-cap Digital Assets.

In the morning we were expecting a rally confirmation in a few hours (ADVL and McClellan Summation Index) and confirmation has occurred. RSI have made a big change and PPO histogram headed in positive. Target is 10% to 20% higher than now. I keep getting questions about if the long-term low is set, but my assumption is only a big correction upwards, a big bear shake out. I don’t need to, but even more, don’t want to bust my head about trying to know what the long-term low is. Impossible to know upfront!

 

 

The potential is a lot for this correction, but it will all depend on the strength of the bulls of course. OI on Bitmex is still high, bears just feel so comfortable in the current market. I think they might have become overconfident and don’t understand markets move in waves.

They provide the buying power if they get squeezed out by some big buyers.



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