2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT June-28




Over the last week, NWST1100 decreased by 0.78%. During the last four days of the week, bears controlled the index, the index price was declining in the lower Keltner band. Over the last two months, mid and small caps tokens recorded significantly larger gains.  

*We gauge the crypto market breadth and direction of the market by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100) which represents the top 1100 Digital Assets. The information-laden chart is difficult to read at first glance but the chart shows key price information, important decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. 

The previous report showed, that our assumption for the last week had been: The continuation of the decline was more likely. The Index was on the limit where the trend could turn downward or sideways trend could resume. The NWST1100 chart shows that during the last four days of the week, bears controlled the index, the index price was declining in the lower Keltner band and the Symmetrical triangle chart pattern was forming.  At the top we see momentum indicators: RSI, PPO histogram continued falling, PPO zero crossover which provided evidence that underlying trend turned downward.

Outlook for this week

Looking ahead, the Momentum indicators give us the following signals: the RSI is 39 (bearish); the PPO histogram bars and the PPO may continue sloping down in the coming days. At the bottom of the chart, we see the Breadth indicators that could continue falling.  Critical short term support levels are considered to be the lower trend line and the support level represented by the 143-day EMA (working days). The main question is: “Will support at 750 points hold or will it fall?” If the price of the NWST1100 falls at support, we expect the index to fall to as low as 680 points. This set up is the basis for my opinion: a more likely course for the next week is a move to the 750 points. If the supports represented by the 143-day EMA hold, a quick rebound will follow.

Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

The crypto markets continued falling over the last week, the table shows that the total (NWST1100) index decreased by 0.78%.  Other Tokens index NWSOT50 was the weakest.

Digital Assets decoupling

The breakdown of the market into groups represented by 2100NEWS DA indexes enables us to measure decoupling much more accurately than can do others who do not have the tools in the form of a full range of indexes. Over the last two months,  mid and small caps tokens have decoupled. Their prices did not follow Bitcoin and Ether represented by the NWSBE. Their prices did not follow the total market represented by the NWST1100 index. On the table above we can see, that mid and small caps tokens (NWSM200, NWSS300, NWSTo100, NWSET100, NWSOT50) recorded significantly larger gains.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

The chart below compares the performance of the average represented by our NWST1100 Digital Asset index with the average global share represented by the Dow Jones global W1Dow index. This year the NWST1100 outperformed W1Dow twice by 60%. The first wave up was an extended Christmas rally then the pair suffered a collapse caused by the corona pandemic, and the crypto markets had fallen more than the equity markets and lost their advantage. Since  March 18th NWST1100 vs. W1Dow pair had rebounded and peaked seven weeks ago. This year, crypto investment represented by NWST1000 beat global equity by 46.9% while over the last 12 months NWST1100 was 20% lower. The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price, at the bottom of the chart is W1Dow. The blue curve is the average index price over the last twelve months. We can see that the NWST1100 price and W1Dow price are above average, but the NWST1000 average is 31.44% lower than 12 months ago.

 

 

 

 

 



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