Over the past week, the NWST1100 support-area (10-days and 25-days EMA) did not hold but a bullish falling flag pattern was forming. NWST1100 declined by 2.65%.
*We gauge the crypto market breadth and direction of the market by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100) which represent the top 1100 Digital Assets. The chart overwhelmed with information is at first glance difficult to read but on the chart is the most important price information, important decisive price levels, momentum, volume of trading, and crypto market breadth.
In the previous report, it was said that our assumption for the past week had been: it was a higher probability to attempt a significant move higher over resistance at 853 points. Before looking at the NWST1100 chart, let’s imagine two teams in a rope-pulling competition. One team pulls the rope with its hands, it must also move the legs to move further and become unstable at the moment of moving the legs, then the opportunity arises for a counterattack of the other team to pull back the first team. Then the events are repeated. Technical analysis graphically represents two teams: buyers and sellers. Looking at the chart above, at the top, we can see, momentum indicators are analogous to pulling a rope competition. They represent, which team has the initiative at a given moment when there will be a moment of instability that is suitable for a counterattack. PPO histogram bars tell us, buyers’ force started declining two weeks ago, so acceleration was beginning to decline. However, in the next step last week, PPO histogram bars crossed below the zero lines, deceleration began to increase, which meant the sellers’ force was increasing. Support-area (10-days and 25-days EMA) did not hold. The Breadth indicator McClellan summation index has flattened out. As with the weather, only the near future of market movements can be well predicted. For such a forecast PPO histogram and RSI are needed because they show us the most important thing – momentum rhythm.
Looking ahead to the next week: since the beginning of October, a positive trend began to emerge. We can see a falling flag pattern in the chart (bullish pattern). The indicators give us the following signals: we can see that RSI is still neutral, showing a weak balance between demand and supply, PPO histogram bars could change the slope to positive in the next few days. It is likely to pick up stronger upside momentum. This set up is the basis, in my opinion, this would give a higher probability to attempt a significant move higher over resistance at 853 points. Alternatively, the market is so weak that it could linger around the pivot line (755 points) for a few more days in the worst case NWST1100 could test lower Bollinger line for a while.
Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)
Looking at the table, you can see that the Total (NWST1100) index declined by 2.65% in the past week.
Digital Assets decoupling
If only the 30 largest capitalizations, which represent 90% of the crypto ecosystem are observing then the decoupling is not observed. The NWS30 acted in a similar fashion as Bitcoin (correlation is extremely strong). It is also not seen at a time of growth when the tide is rising and crypto markets are correlating with leading Bitcoin. In a period of stagnation or falling, however, digital assets decoupling occurs, where it is primarily associated with uncorrelated movement relative to Bitcoin. Looking at the chart below we can see that Ethereum Tokens (NWSET100, NWSET) in the last month was moving differently than Bitcoin. However, in the table above we can see, Ethereum Tokens are green over the last two weeks.
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Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity
On the chart below, the performance of the average Digital Aset represented by our NWST1100 index is compared with the average global equity represented by Dow Jones global index W1Dow. This year average crypto vs. W1Dow soared over 47% but over the past five months, we were observing a pullback. A month ago NWST1100 vs. W1Dow rebounded, last week quotient has been ranging at the bottom half of the Bollinger Bands.